Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026

The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals continue their series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 PM ET with television coverage available on MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Marlins a 44.1 percent chance to win, while the Cardinals hold a 55.9 percent matchup predictor edge. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.

Starting Pitchers Ready for Busch Stadium

Tyler Phillips is scheduled to start for Miami and enters with a 1-2 record, a 3.09 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, 58.1 innings pitched, 50 hits allowed, 49 strikeouts, 30 walks, and 6 home runs allowed. Kyle Leahy is expected to start for St. Louis with a 5-4 record, a 4.24 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, 76.1 innings pitched, 87 hits allowed, 62 strikeouts, 28 walks, and 9 home runs allowed. Based on the supplied statistics, Miami holds the edge in the starting pitching matchup with the lower ERA and WHIP.

Miami Carries Momentum Into the Finale

The Marlins enter Sunday's game with a 43-39 overall record and a 15-22 record on the road. Miami recently defeated St. Louis, recently won three games against Texas, and also picked up a victory over San Francisco before that stretch. The Marlins have won four of their last five games and will try to continue that momentum.

Miami is batting .246 as a team with 353 runs, 663 hits, and 73 home runs. The Marlins own a .323 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. On the mound, they have produced a 3.99 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .228 batting average. The pitching staff has also recorded 698 strikeouts with 282 walks. In day games, Miami owns a strong 23-14 record.

The biggest strength for Miami is its pitching. The Marlins have the better ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average compared to St. Louis. They have also played exceptionally well during day games, making that another positive entering this afternoon matchup.

St. Louis Looks to Respond at Home

The Cardinals come into this contest with a 42-37 overall record and a 22-20 mark at Busch Stadium. St. Louis recently lost to Miami and also dropped back-to-back games against Arizona after earning a victory over Arizona and a high-scoring win over Kansas City. The Cardinals have won two of their last five games but are trying to avoid another loss in this series.

St. Louis is batting .247 with 359 runs, 657 hits, and 88 home runs while posting a .325 on-base percentage and a .396 slugging percentage. The Cardinals have a 4.29 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and have allowed opponents to hit .255. Their pitching staff has totaled 591 strikeouts with 264 walks. In day games, St. Louis is 14-18.

The Cardinals' biggest advantage comes from their offense. They have scored more runs, hit more home runs, and own a slightly better batting average and slugging percentage than Miami. However, their pitching staff has not matched the consistency shown by the Marlins through the season.

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is my pick despite being the slight underdog in the matchup predictor. The Marlins have won four of their last five games, already defeated St. Louis in this series, and own stronger overall pitching numbers. Their success in day games and the advantage in the starting pitching matchup give Miami enough value to back on the moneyline.

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick

• Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.

I like the under because Miami enters with a 3.99 team ERA and a .228 opponent batting average, while the listed Miami starter owns a 3.09 ERA. Although St. Louis has shown more power offensively, the Marlins' pitching profile suggests runs could be more difficult to come by.

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.