Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Monday August 31 2026

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals continue their National League East matchup on Monday night at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET on August 31, with MLB.TV and FS1 providing the coverage. Miami enters at 68-68 overall and 26-41 on the road, while Washington is 65-73 overall and 31-38 at home. The Nationals have won the first two completed games of the current series, 9-2 and 5-4 in 10 innings, while Sunday's meeting was still in progress at the time of this preview. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Washington a 59.3% chance to win compared with 40.7% for Miami. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your MLB wagers for Monday, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Miami is scheduled to start Ryan Gusto, who enters at 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 63.1 innings. Gusto has allowed 66 hits while recording 53 strikeouts against 18 walks and has surrendered eight home runs. Washington had not announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was completed. That uncertainty makes the pitching matchup more difficult to handicap, although Miami at least enters knowing what it should receive from its scheduled starter.

Marlins Trying to Reverse Their Recent Slide

Miami enters Monday at .500 with a 68-68 overall record, but its recent results have moved in the wrong direction. The Marlins are 1-4 over their last five completed games and have dropped two straight. Their only victory during that span was a 4-0 shutout, while the four losses came by scores of 5-4 in 10 innings, 9-2, 7-3 in 11 innings and 4-2.

The Marlins are batting .248 as a team with 588 runs, 1,120 hits and 136 home runs. They have a .326 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. Miami has been the less productive offense in this matchup, scoring 130 fewer runs than Washington while hitting 54 fewer home runs.

Pitching has been Miami's primary statistical advantage. The Marlins carry a 3.92 team ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .230 batting average. They have issued 456 walks and recorded 1,110 strikeouts. Those numbers are considerably stronger than Washington's pitching marks and give Miami a legitimate chance to keep this game competitive.

The road record remains the concern. Miami is only 26-41 away from home, and the Marlins have already dropped the first two completed games of this series in Washington. Their pitching numbers provide some encouragement, but the offense needs to deliver more consistently after scoring four runs or fewer in each of its last five completed games.

Nationals Bring Momentum Into Monday

Washington enters at 65-73 overall and has been playing better baseball recently. The Nationals are 3-2 across their last five completed games and have won three straight, including consecutive victories over Miami. They opened this series with a convincing 9-2 win before following it with a 5-4 victory in 10 innings.

The Nationals have produced considerably more offense than Miami this season. Washington is batting .248 with 718 runs, 1,171 hits and 190 home runs. The Nationals own a .324 on-base percentage and .431 slugging percentage. While the two clubs have identical team batting averages, Washington holds a 33-point advantage in slugging percentage and has scored substantially more runs.

The weakness is a pitching staff carrying a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Opponents are batting .256 against Washington, while the Nationals have issued 501 walks and recorded 1,072 strikeouts. Those numbers give Miami opportunities offensively despite the Marlins' recent struggles at the plate.

Washington's recent form is difficult to ignore, however. The Nationals have scored 21 runs across their last three completed victories while allowing only seven. They have also already demonstrated that they can win this matchup in different ways, taking one game comfortably and surviving a close extra-inning contest in the other.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline

Washington is the preferred side once the moneyline becomes available. The Nationals have won three straight completed games and have already beaten Miami twice during this series, while the Marlins are just 1-4 over their last five and own a poor 26-41 road record. Miami has the stronger overall pitching numbers and a known starter for Monday, so this is not a matchup where Washington should be backed at an inflated price. Still, the Nationals' much stronger run production, superior power numbers and recent momentum provide enough of an edge to side with the home team. Take Washington on the moneyline at a reasonable price.

Pick: Over 8.5

With Washington's starter still undecided, the Over becomes the more attractive total position if the number opens at 8.5. The Nationals have scored 718 runs this season compared with Miami's 588 and carry a .431 slugging percentage with 190 home runs. Washington's pitching staff also owns a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, creating scoring opportunities for a Miami offense that has the ability to put runners on base with its .326 on-base percentage. The first two completed games of this series produced 11 and nine total runs, respectively. Take the Over if the total is set at 8.5.

Final Picks: Washington Nationals Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.