Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 3, 2025
In our Marlins vs. Nationals prediction, the Miami Marlins are third in the NL East with a 65-73 record so far. They are having young right-hander Eury Perez get the start as he is coming off a loss against the New York Mets, where he pitched just 0.2 innings and gave up five runs on three hits with a pair of walks and zero strikeouts.
The Washington Nationals are sitting in fifth place in the NL East with a 54-83 record entering this game. Young righty Mitchell Parker will be taking the ball and is coming off a losing effort against the Tampa Bay Rays as he threw 6.1 innings and allowed three runs on six hits with zero walks and seven strikeouts.
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Marlins Surprising People This Year?
The Miami Marlins are hitting at a respectable level as the team is tied with the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins for 17th in the sport with a .708 team OPS while averaging 4.34 runs per game. They have been struggling to hit for power as they are 27th in the bigs with 131 total home runs. Catcher Augustin Ramirez has been doing a good job at the plate as he has a .714 OPS with 19 home runs, 60 RBI, 60 runs scored, and 11 steals while being caught two times.
Eury Perez is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 93rd percentile in xBA, 82nd percentile in xERA, 69th percentile in whiff percentage, and 65th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has six different pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, sweeper, sinker) and his changeup has been his best pitch as hitters are 1-for-10 against it with zero home runs and six strikeouts. Perez faced the Nationals once this season and didn’t factor into the decision as he pitched four innings and gave up one run on four hits with three walks and zero strikeouts.
Injury Report for Miami
- Pitcher Edward Cabrera: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tyler Zuber: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony Bender: Tibia (OUT)
- Center fielder Dane Myers: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Gusto: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Janson Junk: Arm (OUT)
- Third baseman Graham Pauley: Oblique (OUT)
- Left fielder Kyle Stowers: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Jesus Tinoco: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Max Meyer: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Weathers: Lat (OUT)
- Left fielder Griffin Conine: Arm (OUT)
- Pitcher Andrew Nardi: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Braxton Garrett: Elbow (OUT)
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Nationals Looking to End the Season Strong
The Washington Nationals are struggling at the plate as they are 26th in the bigs with a .691 team OPS while scoring 4.18 runs per game. The team has been aggressive at the plate as they are 27th in the majors with 393 total walks heading into this game. Left fielder James Wood has a .257/.355/.471 slash line with 26 home runs, 84 RBI, 73 runs scored, and 15 steals on six tries.
Mitchell Parker has been pitching poorly, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the first percentile in average exit velocity, first percentile in hard hit percentage, second percentile in xBA, and fourth percentile in ERA. He has a four-pitch arsenal (fastball, curveball, slider, splitter) and his curveball has been getting hit the most as hitters have a .295 batting average and a .486 slugging percentage against it with a pair of home runs and 23 strikeouts thus far. Parker faced the Marlins twice already this season as he is 0-1 in 9.1 innings and allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on 13 hits with one hit by pitch, five walks, and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Washington
- Pitcher MacKenzie Gore: Shoulder (OUT)
- Catcher Drew Millas: Finger (OUT)
- Pitcher Derek Law: Forearm (OUT)
- Catcher Keibert Ruiz: Concussion (OUT)
- Pitcher Trevor Williams: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher DJ Herz: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josiah Gray: Elbow (OUT)
Miami Marlins ML (5 units)
During the last seven starts, there is a sizable gap between these starting pitchers as Eury Perez is 3-1 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 32.1 innings, while Mitchell Parker is 1-5 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 33.0 innings during that span. In the previous week, these teams were at two completely different levels scoring runs as Miami is scoring 5.5 runs in their previous six games, while Washington is averaging just 2.0 runs in their last five games. The Marlins won five of the last six games over the Nats, so take the Miami Marlins to secure the victory on the road.
Over (5 units)
When looking at the road/home splits between these starting pitchers, they are struggling to get outs as Eury Perez is 3-2 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 39.1 innings (nine road starts) while Mitchell Parker is 5-8 with a 5.35 ERA and a .288 opposing batting average in 79.0 innings (15 home starts) heading into this game. Hitting with runners in scoring position shows they can contribute offensively over the course of the season. The Marlins are ninth with a .768 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Nationals are 17th with a .840 team OPS in those opportunities. All in all, go with the over as the better bet here.
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