Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Saturday July 4 2026
Use Code SSWC The Milwaukee Brewers head to Chase Field for a Saturday, July 4, matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. Milwaukee enters the contest with an impressive 53-32 record, while Arizona comes in at 43-43. According to ESPN Analytics, the Brewers have a 65.1% chance to win compared to 34.9% for the Diamondbacks. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for even more analysis and daily predictions.
Starting Pitchers Take the Hill
Saturday's pitching matchup features Brandon Woodruff getting the start for Milwaukee against Merrill Kelly for Arizona. Woodruff has made the most of his opportunities this season, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.59 ERA and an outstanding 0.84 WHIP across 41.2 innings. He has surrendered just 26 hits while striking out 41 batters, issuing only nine walks, and allowing four home runs. Kelly enters with a 5-8 record, a 5.84 ERA, and a 1.53 WHIP over 81.2 innings. He has given up 92 hits while recording 47 strikeouts, walking 33 batters, and allowing 18 home runs.
Milwaukee Continues an Outstanding Season
The Brewers have been one of the most consistent teams this season, entering Saturday with a 53-32 overall record. They have also excelled on the road, posting a 24-14 mark away from home. Milwaukee has won three of its last five games despite falling 7-2 to Cincinnati in its most recent outing. Before that loss, the Brewers earned three straight victories over the Reds by scores of 4-2, 7-2, and 5-3 after dropping a 4-3 extra-inning contest to the Cubs.
Milwaukee has produced a .254 team batting average while collecting 730 hits and scoring 436 runs. The Brewers have hit 79 home runs with a .338 on-base percentage and a .396 slugging percentage. On the mound, they have been outstanding, posting a 3.36 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .220 batting average. The pitching staff has also totaled 843 strikeouts against 284 walks. During night games, Milwaukee owns an impressive 34-19 record.
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The Brewers' greatest strength has clearly been their pitching. A 3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .220 opponent batting average are all the best numbers in this matchup. Combined with 843 strikeouts, Milwaukee has consistently prevented opposing offenses from generating sustained rallies throughout the season.
Arizona Looks to Protect Home Field
The Diamondbacks enter this contest with an even 43-43 overall record and have been strong at Chase Field, compiling a 26-18 home record. Arizona has split its last five games, winning two and losing three. The Diamondbacks most recently fell 6-4 to San Francisco after previously earning consecutive victories over the Giants by scores of 8-2 and 5-4. Before returning home, Arizona dropped back-to-back games at Tampa Bay by scores of 5-1 and 4-2.
Arizona is batting .238 with 678 hits and 367 runs scored this season. The Diamondbacks have hit 78 home runs while posting a .308 on-base percentage and a .386 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.32 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .251. Arizona has also recorded 580 strikeouts with 252 walks. The Diamondbacks are 26-26 in night games this season.
Arizona has been competitive at home this season, but the overall numbers show an offense that has struggled to match Milwaukee's production. The Diamondbacks have scored fewer runs while also posting a lower batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than the Brewers. On the mound, they also trail Milwaukee in every major team pitching category provided.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Milwaukee has been the more complete team throughout the season. The Brewers own the better overall record, have played exceptionally well on the road, and enter this matchup with a sizable advantage in ESPN's matchup predictor. They also hold clear advantages in team pitching and the starting pitching matchup, making Milwaukee my preferred side on Saturday night.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Total Pick
- Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.5
I would lean toward the under if the total is set at 8.5. Milwaukee's pitching staff has been outstanding all season with a 3.36 ERA and a .220 opponent batting average, while the Brewers will also send the starter with the stronger statistical profile to the mound. Those factors make me believe runs could be limited in this contest.
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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