Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Thursday, October 9, 2025
In our Brewers vs. Cubs prediction, the Milwaukee Brewers are looking to avoid a Game 5 in the NLDS and get some rest as they are up with a 2-1 series lead after losing Game 3. Right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to be taking the mound and he pitched Game 1 of the series and recorded the win as he pitched 5.2 innings and allowed two runs on four hits with three walks and nine strikeouts.
The Chicago Cubs have their backs against the wall, but were able to record a win in Game 3 of the NLDS to keep their season alive. Veteran southpaw Matthew Boyd is projected to start, as he is coming off a loss in Game 1, where he lasted 0.2 innings and gave up six runs (two earned) on four hits with one walk and one strikeout.
First pitch focus — MLB picks for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs that cut through the noise.
Brewers Looking to End the Series Here
The Milwaukee Brewers have been clicking offensively as they are third in the sport during the postseason with a .841 team OPS while scoring 10.3 runs per game. The team has been putting on pressure as their .365 team on-base percentage only trails the Toronto Blue Jays these playoffs. First baseman Andrew Vaughn has swung the bat well to begin the postseason as he is 2-for-7 with one home run, three RBI, three runs scored, and a 2:0 walk-to-strikeout ratio thus far.
Freddy Peralta is in the 90th percentile in hard hit percentage, 85th percentile in xBA, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 83rd percentile in whiff percentage according to his Baseball Savant page. He has four different pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball, slider), and his slider has been his best pitch as hitters have a .157 batting average and .216 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 21 strikeouts. Peralta faced the Cubs five times during the regular season and playoffs combined as he went 4-1 in 26.2 innings and allowed 10 runs on 16 hits with one hit by pitch, 13 walks, and 31 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Milwaukee
- Pitcher Brandon Woodruff: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Jose Quintana: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Shelby Miller: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Logan Henderson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Montgomery: Elbow (OUT)
- Center fielder Garrett Mitchell: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Connor Thomas: Elbow (OUT)
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Cubs Forcing a Game 5?
The Chicago Cubs have been a middling offensive team in the playoffs as they are sixth in the sport with a .670 team OPS while averaging 2.67 runs per game. The team has been able to hit for power as they are second in the majors this playoffs with eight home runs so far. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been struggling at the plate over the postseason as he has gone 5-for-22 with three RBI, zero walks, zero runs, and one steal on two attempts.
Matthew Boyd’s Baseball Savant page has him in the 86th percentile in walk percentage, 69th percentile in hard hit percentage, 69th percentile in average exit velocity, and 61st percentile in xERA. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, sinker) and his changeup has been his best pitch as hitters have a .205 batting average and .337 slugging percentage with five home runs and 46 strikeouts against it. Boyd faced the Brewers three times during the regular season and playoffs as he is 1-2 in 11.0 innings and allowed 15 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits with nine walks and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Chicago
- Pitcher Cade Horton: Ribs (OUT)
- Right fielder Owen Caissie: Concussion (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Braiser: Groin (OUT)
- Catcher Miguel Amaya: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Steele: Elbow (OUT)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Pick
Spread Pick for Brewers vs. Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers -120 (5 units)
The Brewers are the better team, and outside of a rough first inning in Game 3, they have looked like the better team. Freddy Peralta has clicked on the mound while Matthew Boyd was struggling in Game 1, so the Brew Crew can put their barrels on his pitches. The teams are on different levels, pitching in this series as Milwaukee is pitching to a 3.46 team ERA in the NLDS, while Chicago is down at a 5.40 team ERA in the series. All in all, go with the Milwaukee Brewers to record a win and advance to the NLCS.
Over/Under Pick for Brewers vs. Cubs
- UNDER (4 units)
These teams just showed it in Game 3, but these teams are going to be able to pitch well and step up to the point where the bats are silenced. The bullpens are clicking throughout the playoffs as Milwaukee is best with a 0.50 reliever ERA while Chicago is fourth with a 2.55 bullpen ERA up to this point. The lineups combined to go 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position and stranded 14 men on base throughout Game 3, so go with the UNDER as the better bet here.
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