Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 3, 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, with the first pitch at 7:15 PM ET, televised on MLB.TV/FOX. Milwaukee is 86-53, first in the NL Central with an eight-game lead over Chicago. The Brewers are 3-2 over their last five after beating the Cubs 9-4 on Tuesday. Chicago is 78-61, second in the NL Central and holds the first NL Wild Card spot, five games above the cutoff. The Cubs are 2-3 over their last five. Review all of our free MLB picks here.

Milwaukee Brewers Lead the NL Central

Milwaukee has scored 695 runs while batting .256 with a .339 on-base percentage. Jackson Chourio leads the Brewers with a .282 average, while Jake Bauers has a team-high 23 home runs and Brice Turang leads with 78 RBI. William Contreras has 134 hits and a .273 average. Milwaukee has scored 27 runs across its last five games, although 12 came during the first two games of this series at Wrigley Field.

Pitching separates Milwaukee from most clubs. The Brewers rank second in MLB with a 3.47 ERA and own a 1.17 WHIP with a .221 opponent batting average. Milwaukee pitchers have recorded 1,331 strikeouts and 48 quality starts. The Brewers are also 39-28 away from home and have won 54 of 87 night games. Milwaukee responded to Monday’s 17-3 loss by beating Chicago 9-4 Tuesday, keeping its eight-game division advantage intact.

Injuries: Joel Kuhnel, Rob Zastryzny, Bryse Wilson, Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester are on the injured list.

Chicago Cubs Bring Major Power to Wrigley Field

Chicago has produced 746 runs, 196 home runs and a .433 slugging percentage. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the lineup with a .280 average, 38 home runs, 91 RBI and 150 hits. Seiya Suzuki has added 24 homers and 80 RBI, while Alex Bregman has 23 home runs and 77 RBI. The Cubs have scored 51 runs over their last five games, including 17-run performances against Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

The Cubs have not matched that offensive production on the mound. Chicago ranks 16th in MLB with a 4.17 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .245 opponent batting average. Cubs pitchers have surrendered 211 home runs, the highest total shown among MLB clubs. Chicago is 40-30 at Wrigley Field and owns a plus-136 run differential, but the Cubs remain eight games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central after splitting the first two completed games of this series.

Injuries: Pedro Ramirez is day-to-day. Edward Cabrera, Shelby Miller, Gavin Hollowell and Tyler Austin are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers - Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson is 9-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 76.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed only 49 hits and 14 walks while striking out 86. Henderson has surrendered 11 home runs, but his ability to limit baserunners has produced one of the strongest WHIP marks in this matchup. His 2.48 ERA is also nearly a full run below Milwaukee’s 3.47 team ERA.

Chicago Cubs - Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman is 8-11 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 155.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 155 hits, 43 walks and 20 home runs while recording 156 strikeouts. Gausman has provided significantly more innings than Henderson, but his ERA sits above Chicago’s 4.17 team mark. His strikeout total remains strong, although the 198 combined hits and walks have created considerably more baserunners than Henderson has allowed.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Game Pick

• Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee owns the better record, a stronger pitching staff, and a clear starting-pitcher advantage on Thursday. Logan Henderson has a 2.48 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, while Kevin Gausman sits at 4.52 and 1.27. The Brewers also rank second in MLB with a 3.47 team ERA and have gone 39-28 away from home. Chicago has dangerous power, but Milwaukee responded well after Monday’s blowout loss by winning 9-4 Tuesday. With Henderson on the mound, the pick is Milwaukee to defeat Chicago at Wrigley Field on Thursday night.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Over/Under Pick

• Under

Logan Henderson’s season numbers provide a strong starting point for a lower-scoring result despite Chicago’s powerful lineup. Henderson owns a 2.48 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 86 strikeouts in 76.1 innings. Milwaukee also has a 3.47 team ERA and .221 opponent batting average. Kevin Gausman has struggled more, but his 156 strikeouts show he can miss bats. Chicago’s recent games have produced high scores, yet Milwaukee’s pitching profile is considerably stronger. Without a posted total, the under is the pick for Thursday night at Wrigley Field.