Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 24, 2026

On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 6:05 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Milwaukee is 98-59, 46-33 away and first in the NL Central, 11 games ahead of Chicago. The Brewers lost 6-4 to Philadelphia on Tuesday after sweeping three games in Baltimore. Philadelphia is 87-70, 42-34 at home and second in the NL East, five games behind Atlanta. The Phillies have won two straight and currently hold an NL wild-card position. Let’s break down the matchup with our free MLB picks.

Milwaukee Brewers Trying to Bounce Back After Tuesday’s Loss

Milwaukee had won three straight before Tuesday’s 6-4 loss to Philadelphia, including a three-game sweep in Baltimore in which the Brewers allowed only five runs. Jackson Chourio leads Milwaukee with a .283 average and has 24 home runs, 70 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Jake Bauers has hit a team-high 26 home runs with 83 RBI while posting a .396 on-base percentage and .495 slugging percentage. Brice Turang has driven in a team-best 93 runs with 19 homers and 19 stolen bases.

The Brewers rank second in MLB with a .258 batting average and have scored 806 runs while recording a .340 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff also ranks second with a 3.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .223 opponent average. Brewers pitchers have struck out 1,496 batters while allowing 166 home runs across 1,401.2 innings. Milwaukee ranks seventh in fielding with 70 errors and a .987 fielding percentage and owns a 46-33 road record.

Injuries: Joey Ortiz (questionable), Grant Anderson (out), Bryse Wilson (out), Brandon Woodruff (out), Quinn Priester (out).

Philadelphia Phillies Building a Two-Game Winning Streak

Philadelphia followed a 7-2 win over the Mets with Tuesday’s 6-4 victory against Milwaukee. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 45 home runs and 95 RBI while posting a .508 slugging percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .269 with 28 home runs, 85 RBI, a .382 on-base percentage and .488 slugging percentage. Alec Bohm has 88 RBI with a .255 average, while Bryson Stott has 26 stolen bases and 66 RBI. Brandon Marsh is batting .262 with 18 home runs.

The Phillies are batting .241 with 703 runs, 180 home runs, a .312 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage. Philadelphia ranks 19th in batting average and 11th in pitching with a 4.00 ERA. The staff has a 1.28 WHIP, .247 opponent average and 1,525 strikeouts across 1,393.1 innings. Philadelphia has committed 77 errors with a .986 fielding percentage, ranking 12th in MLB. The Phillies have gone 42-34 at Citizens Bank Park.

Injuries: Jonathan Bowlan (questionable), Jesus Luzardo (out), Caleb Kilian (out), Felix Reyes (out), Johan Rojas (out).

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers - Undecided

Milwaukee had not yet announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was written.

Philadelphia Phillies - Tim Mayza

Tim Mayza is 3-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 65.1 innings. He has allowed 55 hits and six home runs while recording 63 strikeouts and 17 walks.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Pick

• Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is the pick after winning three of its last four games and pairing one of MLB’s top offenses with the second-ranked pitching staff. The Brewers have scored 806 runs with a .258 average and .340 on-base percentage, compared with Philadelphia’s 703 runs, .241 average and .312 on-base percentage. Milwaukee also owns a 3.55 team ERA and .223 opponent average. Philadelphia won Tuesday’s opener, but the Brewers’ deeper season-long production and 46-33 road record make Milwaukee the play in Thursday’s matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick with Milwaukee’s pitching numbers and Mayza’s season statistics setting up a lower-scoring matchup. The Brewers own a 3.55 team ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .223 opponent average, and Milwaukee held Baltimore to five total runs during its three-game sweep before arriving in Philadelphia. Mayza has a 3.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with only 17 walks in 65.1 innings. Philadelphia’s .241 team average also leaves enough room for pitching to keep the scoring lower than the closing total.