Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 10, 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Friday, July 10, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET and coverage available on MLB.TV. Milwaukee enters at 58-34 overall and 29-16 on the road, while Pittsburgh comes in at 47-46 overall and 24-23 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives Pittsburgh a 61.9% chance to win, while Milwaukee is listed at 38.1%. Be sure to check out our ⁠free MLB Picks.

Starting Pitchers

The Brewers are expected to start Brandon Sproat, who enters with a 3-4 record, a 5.13 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, 79.0 innings pitched, 71 hits allowed, 84 strikeouts, 37 walks, and 14 home runs allowed. The Pirates are expected to counter with Braxton Ashcraft, who comes in at 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, 108.1 innings pitched, 94 hits allowed, 122 strikeouts, 25 walks, and 12 home runs allowed. Based strictly on the supplied numbers, Pittsburgh has the statistical edge in the starting pitching matchup.

Milwaukee Tries to Keep Its Road Form Steady

Milwaukee enters this matchup with a strong 58-34 overall record and a 29-16 mark away from home. The Brewers have recently lost to St. Louis, but before that had recently won over St. Louis three times and recently won over Arizona. That gives Milwaukee four wins in its last five games, which keeps the Brewers in strong form despite the most recent setback.

The Brewers are batting .255 with 468 runs, 797 hits, 84 home runs, a .337 on-base percentage, and a .397 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Milwaukee owns a 3.32 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, 299 walks, 896 strikeouts, and a .217 opponent batting average. The Brewers also have a 21-13 day-game record.

The clearest strength for Milwaukee is its pitching profile. The Brewers have the better team ERA, better WHIP, fewer walks, more strikeouts, and lower opponent batting average compared to Pittsburgh. Those numbers give Milwaukee a solid foundation, especially on the road.

Pittsburgh Brings a Dangerous Home Lineup

Pittsburgh enters the game at 47-46 overall with a 24-23 record at home. The Pirates have recently lost to Atlanta, but they also recently won over Atlanta and Washington twice before that. Pittsburgh has won three of its last five games, giving the club some positive recent results heading into this matchup at PNC Park.

The Pirates are batting .262 with 487 runs, 849 hits, 117 home runs, a .341 on-base percentage, and a .421 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has a 4.26 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, 332 walks, 848 strikeouts, and a .238 opponent batting average. Pittsburgh also has a 24-16 record in day games.

Pittsburgh’s biggest strength is its offense. The Pirates lead Milwaukee in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That stronger offensive production is important in a matchup where Pittsburgh is also favored by the ESPN Matchup Predictor.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

• Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh gets the pick here based on the information provided. Milwaukee has the better overall record and stronger team pitching numbers, but Pittsburgh owns the better offensive stats and has the higher ESPN Matchup Predictor percentage at 61.9%. The Pirates also have the stronger starting pitcher numbers in this matchup, which gives them the edge at home.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick

• Take the over/under if the total is set at 8.5.

I would lean under if the total is set at 8.5. Milwaukee’s team ERA is 3.32 with a 1.16 WHIP, while Pittsburgh’s expected starter enters with a 3.24 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Pittsburgh has the offensive advantage, but the pitching numbers supplied point toward enough run prevention to keep this game from getting too high.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – Milwaukee Brewers 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.