Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 7, 2025
In our Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, the Milwaukee Brewers are first in the NL Central with an 87-55 record so far. They are having rookie right-hander Jacob Misiorowski get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies, as he threw 4.1 innings and allowed three runs on six hits with one walk and four strikeouts.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to improve as they are sitting in fifth place in the NL Central with a 64-78 record entering this game. Young righty Carmen Mlodzinski will be getting the start and is coming off a no-decision in the opening game of this series out of the bullpen as he pitched one inning and gave up two runs on four hits with one walk and one strikeout.
First pitch focus — our MLB picks for Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates break down the matchup.
WRITTEN BEFORE SATURDAY’S GAME
Brewers Looking to Continue Playing Well
The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to continue swinging the bats at a good rate as the team is 11th in the sport with a .739 team OPS while averaging 5.08 runs per game. They have been able to be patient at the plate as their 491 total walks in fifth in MLB. Center fielder Jackson Chourio has done well as he has a .787 OPS with 18 home runs, 69 RBI, 76 runs scored, and 18 stolen bases while being caught seven times.
Jacob Misiorowski has been incredibly well, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 98th percentile in strikeout percentage, 98th percentile in xBA, 85th percentile in whiff percentage, and 71st percentile in chase percentage. He has a four-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup, curveball) and his fastball has been outstanding as hitters have a .179 batting average and .282 slugging percentage against it with a pair of homers and 36 strikeouts. Misiorowski faced the Pirates once this season in a win as he pitched five shutout innings as he gave up two hits with a pair of walks and eight strikeouts.
Injury Report for Milwaukee
- Left fielder Christian Yelich: Back (Questionable)
- Pitcher Shelby Miller: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Nick Mears: Back Tightness (OUT)
- Pitcher Trevor Megill: Flexor Strain (OUT)
- Pitcher Logan Henderson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Grant Anderson: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher DL Hall: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Montgomery: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Rhys Hoskins: Thumb (OUT)
- Center fielder Garrett Mitchell: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Connor Thomas: Elbow (OUT)
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Pirates in the Spoiler Role
The Pittsburgh Pirates are doing a terrible job at the plate as they are last in the bigs with a .659 team OPS while scoring 3.65 runs per game. The team has been unable to hit for power as they are last by a wide margin with 102 total home runs hit. Designated hitter Andrew McCutchen has been leading the way at the plate as he has a .243/.339/.384 slash line with 13 homers, 52 RBI, 46 runs scored, and one steal on two tries.
Carmen Mlodzinski is struggling this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 14th percentile in xBA, 14th percentile in average exit velocity, 24th percentile in whiff percentage, and 26th percentile in xERA. He has seven different pitches (fastball, slider, sinker, changeup, sweeper, curveball, cutter) and his slider has been getting hit as hitters have a .349 batting average and .524 slugging percentage with two home runs and eight strikeouts. Mlodzinski faced the Brewers three times out of the bullpen this season and is 0-1 in 4.2 innings and allowed six runs (four earned) on nine hits with one hit by pitch, four walks, and three strikeouts.
Injury Report for Pittsburgh
- Second baseman Ronny Simon: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Jack Suwinski: Groin (OUT)
- First baseman Endy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Enmanuel Valdez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Lawrence: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jared Jones: Elbow (OUT)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Spread Pick for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Milwaukee Brewers ML (5 units)
The pitching staffs have been on different levels and two young pitchers are going to make this game interesting. However, I am going to believe in the better team to dominate this game. There is a significant difference between these lineups since the All-Star break, as the Brew Crew are third in the sport with a .805 team OPS while the Pirates are tied with the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds for 21st with a .702 team OPS. The Brewers have won seven of the previous eight games against the Pirates so take the Milwaukee Brewers to secure the win.
Over/Under Pick for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Under (4 units)
These bullpens have been stepping up over the course of the season as the Brewers are 10th with a 3.82 reliever ERA, while the Pirates are 17th with a 4.13 bullpen ERA right now. The pitching over the previous 15 days has really stepped up as Milwaukee is 11th with a 4.12 team ERA in that stretch, while Pittsburgh is second in MLB with a 2.62 team ERA in the previous 15 days. The under hit in three of the last five games between one another so take the under here.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
