Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 17, 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday at PNC Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 12:35 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. Milwaukee is 94-57, first in the NL Central and 10.5 games ahead of Chicago, with 11 games remaining. Pittsburgh is 75-76, third in the division and 19 games behind Milwaukee, with 11 games left. The Pirates are also seven games behind San Diego for the third and final NL Wild Card position. Milwaukee won the most recent meeting 5-1 on Tuesday and has won four of its last five, while Pittsburgh has dropped three of five. Check out our free MLB picks.

Milwaukee Brewers Coming Off Another Strong Road Win

Milwaukee has scored at a high level during its recent stretch, putting up 49 runs across the last five games. The Brewers beat Cincinnati 20-0 and 13-9 before Tuesday’s 5-1 victory in Pittsburgh. Milwaukee is batting .259 with a .342 on-base percentage and .406 slugging percentage, producing 783 runs and 146 home runs. Jackson Chourio leads the club with a .289 average, while Jake Bauers has 26 homers and Brice Turang has driven in 92 runs.

The Brewers also have one of baseball’s stronger pitching staffs, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while holding opponents to a .223 batting average. Milwaukee has struck out 1,443 batters and issued 485 walks. The club’s defensive work has also been steady, ranking near the top of the fielding table. Milwaukee’s 42-31 road record adds another positive element for a club that has consistently produced away from home and sits comfortably atop the NL Central.

Injuries: Cooper Pratt (day-to-day), Rob Zastryzny (60-day IL), Bryse Wilson (15-day IL), Grant Anderson (15-day IL), Brandon Woodruff (60-day IL).

Pittsburgh Pirates Trying to Rebound at Home

Pittsburgh has alternated between productive offensive games and quiet performances recently. The Pirates scored four runs in consecutive games against Chicago but were held to two runs in a 12-2 loss and one run against Milwaukee on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is batting .253 with a .330 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage, totaling 719 runs and 171 home runs. Nick Gonzales is batting .307, while Brandon Lowe leads Pittsburgh with 30 home runs and 86 RBI.

The Pirates have posted a 4.18 team ERA and 1.30 WHIP, with opponents batting .237. Pittsburgh has recorded 1,377 strikeouts while allowing 549 walks, and the Pirates have been stronger at PNC Park with a 38-35 home record. Their defensive figures place them around the middle of the MLB fielding table. Bryan Reynolds has scored 101 runs with 17 homers and 71 RBI, while Oneil Cruz has 18 homers, 27 stolen bases and a .835 OPS in 88 games.

Injuries: Kirby Yates (15-day IL), Braxton Ashcraft (15-day IL), Isaac Mattson (15-day IL), Esmerlyn Valdez (10-day IL), Mitch Keller (60-day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers - Dustin May

Dustin May is 7-9 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 138.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 132 hits while striking out 133 and walking 46. May has surrendered only 11 home runs, a useful figure considering his workload. His strikeout-to-walk numbers have been solid, but the 4.49 ERA leaves little room for extended stretches with runners on base. 

Pittsburgh Pirates - Undecided

Pittsburgh had not yet announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was written.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Pick

• Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is the pick after taking the first completed game of this series 5-1 and winning four of its last five overall. The Brewers have the stronger team pitching numbers with a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .223 opponent batting average. Their offense has also scored 64 more runs than Pittsburgh while posting a higher on-base percentage. May has allowed only 11 homers in 138.1 innings, and Milwaukee’s 42-31 road record makes the Brewers the play on Thursday.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under Pick

• Over

Over is the pick in a matchup featuring two offenses that rank among the top five in MLB batting average, with Milwaukee at .259 and Pittsburgh at .253. The Brewers have scored 783 runs and recently produced games of 20 and 13 runs against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has hit 171 home runs, including 30 from Lowe, 18 from Cruz, and 17 from Reynolds. May owns a 4.49 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s staff has a 4.18 ERA. That scoring will help the over cash on Thursday