Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Monday August 10 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers open a three-game series against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Monday, August 10, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET, with ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV, Padres.TV, and FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin providing coverage. Milwaukee is a -196 moneyline favorite, San Diego is priced at +162, and the total is set at 9. Baseball bettors can find additional analysis throughout the season by visiting our free MLB picks.

Milwaukee enters with the best record in the National League and has won four of its five most recently supplied games. San Diego went 3-2 during its last five and owns a winning home record. The Brewers lead the season series 2-1 after winning two of three games in Milwaukee by scores of 6-4 and 7-1.

Starting Pitchers

Logan Henderson is scheduled to start for Milwaukee opposite San Diego right-hander Casey Mize. Henderson is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP through 50 innings, allowing 35 hits and seven home runs while recording 62 strikeouts against 10 walks. Mize is 4-7 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 90 innings. He has surrendered 76 hits and six home runs while collecting 86 strikeouts against 22 walks. Henderson holds advantages in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and record, although Mize has completed 40 more innings.

Milwaukee Carries Its Balanced Profile to San Diego

The Brewers enter Monday at 73-44 overall with an impressive 33-22 record away from home. Milwaukee went 4-1 across its five most recently supplied games, sweeping three games from Pittsburgh before splitting the first two contests against Minnesota. The Brewers scored at least four runs in all five games and allowed three runs or fewer in four of them.

Milwaukee is batting .253 with 581 runs, 998 hits, and 107 home runs. The Brewers have produced a .336 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 3.48 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP with 1,141 strikeouts and 367 walks while limiting opposing hitters to a .220 batting average.

The Brewers’ ability to reach base and prevent opponents from doing the same creates their clearest advantage. Milwaukee leads San Diego by 23 points in on-base percentage and has scored 84 more runs. Its pitching staff also owns significant advantages in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and opponent batting average. Joey Ortiz is listed as day-to-day, but Milwaukee’s overall statistical profile remains considerably stronger.

San Diego Looks to Protect Its Winning Home Record

The Padres enter the series at 61-57 overall with a 33-26 record at Petco Park. San Diego went 3-2 over its five most recently supplied games, earning two victories against Arizona before defeating Houston 3-2 on Saturday. The Padres scored 24 runs during that stretch, although 18 came in two victories.

San Diego is batting .236 with 497 runs, 915 hits, and 124 home runs. The Padres own a .313 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has registered a 4.18 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with 956 strikeouts and 410 walks while allowing opponents to bat .247.

Power provides San Diego with its most notable offensive advantage. The Padres have hit 17 more home runs than Milwaukee despite scoring considerably fewer runs overall. Their inconsistent production remains a concern, as San Diego scored three runs or fewer in two of its last five games and was held to one run twice during the previous series against Milwaukee.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

• Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

Milwaukee is the preferred side because it holds advantages in nearly every major team category and has the stronger starting pitcher. Henderson’s 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP give the Brewers an excellent opportunity to control the early innings. He has also struck out 62 batters while issuing only 10 walks.

The -196 price is expensive and limits the value, but San Diego has not demonstrated enough consistency to justify opposing Milwaukee. The Brewers have scored at least four runs in five consecutive supplied games, possess the superior bullpen indicators, and have played well away from home. Milwaukee should find a way to secure the series opener.

• Pick: Under 9

The under is the second selection. Henderson has allowed only 45 combined hits and walks across 50 innings, while opponents are batting just .220 against Milwaukee’s pitching staff. San Diego could struggle to generate sustained rallies against a pitcher with Henderson’s command and swing-and-miss ability.

Mize has a respectable 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, giving San Diego a reasonable opportunity to prevent Milwaukee from turning this into a high-scoring game. The Padres have also held four of their last five opponents to six runs or fewer. With two capable starters at a pitcher-friendly venue, nine runs provides enough room to support the under.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 5, San Diego Padres 3

This preview was written prior to game play on Sunday.