Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction - September 22, 2025
With only three games on the MLB docket, it’s a good time to do some homework and get ready with our Brewers vs. Padres predictions. Milwaukee (95-61, 1st in N.L. Central) goes with RHP Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.65 ERA) as their starting pitcher for the series opener. San Diego (84-71, 2nd in N.L. West) has lined up RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.81 ERA) as their starter. The first pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 EST and make sure you are up on the other two games on the night with our Free MLB Picks.
Brewers look to lock down league’s best record
Despite losing on Sunday, the Brewers were able to finally clinch the Central thanks to the Cubs losing. They are still three games up on Philadelphia for the top record in the National League. The team went 7-6 over their last 13 games with the pitching staff having a 3.79 ERA in that stretch. Milwaukee’s pitching staff ranks first in the league with a 3.62 ERA and fourth with a 1.23 WHIP. Their 1378 strikeouts rank third in the N.L. and opponents are hitting .230 against them, the second-best mark in the league. Brewers’ starters are 60-37 with a 3.76 ERA, while their relievers had 43 saves, 35 wins and a 3.73 ERA.
The offense had a league-best .283 team batting average over their last 13 games while scoring 64 runs. They top the National League with a .260 team average heading into the final week of play, and their 790 runs are second. Milwaukee has 163 home runs and a league-best 154 stolen bases. Seven players have stolen at least 16 bases for the club, with Brice Turang’s 24 leading the group. Sal Frelick has a team-best .294 batting average, third in the N.L. Christian Yelich is third in the league with 100 RBIs and leads the team with 29 home runs.
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Starter spotlight
- Freddy Peralta makes his 32nd start of the year and the team looks to improve on their 19-12 record with him on the hill.
- Struck out a season-high 10 batters in his last outing and earned a win after allowing a run, two hits and two walks over six innings.
- Is third in the league with a 2.65 ERA and sixth with 195 strikeouts.
- Teams are hitting .190 against Peralta with 19 home runs and 65 walks.
- The Brewers’ starter is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA versus San Diego in his career.
Padres closing in on postseason berth
After taking back-to-back games in Chicago over the weekend, the Padres are on the verge of locking in their postseason spot with their magic number down to just two. They are still three games back of the top Wild Card spot with six to play. Pitching for the club posted a 3.63 ERA over their last 14 games while the team went 8-6. They are just behind the Brewers with a 3.68 team ERA through 156 games and they are also second in the National League with a 1.20 WHIP. San Diego staters come into the final week of play with a 43-45 record and 4.14 ERA, while their bullpen has chipped in with 48 saves, 42 wins, and a league-best 3.08 ERA.
Over the past half-month, the offense produced 63 runs and had a .254 average over 14 games. They sit fourth in the league with a .252 team batting average, and the Padres have crossed the plate 665 times. Their 142 home runs are the second fewest in the National League, but they had also struck out fewer than any team, 1113 times. Manny Machado drove in 14 runs over 17 games in September and is tied for seventh in the league with 93 RBIs. Luis Arraez is seventh in the league with a .287 batting average, and Machado is 17th with a .275 mark. Fernando Tatis is seventh in the league with 32 stolen bases.
Starter spotlight
- This will be the 30th start of the season for Nick Pivetta and the team is 18-12 when he’s pitched.
- He is 0-1 over his last five starts but had a 2.83 ERA and struck out 31 batters over 28.2 innings in that stretch.
- Ranks fifth I the N.L. with a 2.81 ERA and second with a 0.97 WHIP.
- Opponents are hitting .195 against the right-hander with 22 home runs and 45 walks.
- Pivetta is 1-3 with a 9.95 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee.
Brewers vs. Padres Picks
Spread Pick for Brewers vs. Padres
- Padres -130 (5 units)
The Padres took two of three games in Milwaukee when these two met in early June. The Brewers have finally locked in their third straight division title, and they do still have something at stake with the top record in the N.L. on the line. San Diego is fairly comfortable in that second Wild Card spot, but they can make a move a the top spot with an outside shot at the division should the Dodgers fall completely apart. This is an excellent pitching matchup between two of the top five ERA guys in the N.L. Pivetta has struggled against Milwaukee in the past but they have not seen this year’s version, which may be his best yet. The Padres’ starter allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts. He has been consistent and hasn’t allowed a lot of mistakes. Pivetta has also been nearly unbeatable at home, going 8-1 with a 2.22 ERA, holding opponents to a .170 batting average in 16 starts at Petco. Peralta has also had a massive year, but he hasn’t been as consistent and some teams have made him pay, though not many. He is 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA on the road this season. San Diego is 7-3 in their last ten games against the Brewers.
Take the Padres.
Over/Under for Brewers vs. Padres
- Under 7 (5 units)
With six games left to play, we know for sure the Brewers are locked into the postseason, and it would take a complete collapse for the Padres not to get in at this point. That said, the Brewers locking down the Central Division title on Sunday should lead to a bit of celebration, especially on the flight to San Diego. Expect some starters in their lineup to get the day off. This is as good a pitching matchup as we’ll get in this series. Pivetta has been sensational at home, earning a win in eight of 16 starts and losing only once. More importantly, he allowed only 26 runs over 97.1 innings at Petco. Peralta is holding opponents to a 1.92 average and has allowed only 34 runs in 80 innings on the road this year. The under hit in each of the first three games between the teams this season.
Take the under.
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