Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 17, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Minnesota Twins visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, July 17, 2026, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on MLB.TV. Minnesota enters the series opener at 48-49 overall and 22-24 on the road, while Chicago is 54-42 overall and 27-19 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Twins a 43.2% chance to win and the Cubs a 56.8% chance. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers for Twins vs Cubs
Minnesota has not settled on its starting pitcher, while Colin Rea is scheduled to take the mound for Chicago. Rea enters the matchup with a 7-5 record, 4.75 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP through 94.2 innings. He has allowed 101 hits, 36 walks, and 14 home runs while recording 70 strikeouts. His supplied numbers give Chicago an established starting option for Friday’s series opener.
Minnesota Brings a Competitive Recent Stretch to Chicago
Minnesota enters Friday’s game with a 48-49 overall record and a 22-24 mark away from home. The Twins have won three of their last five games, recently defeating the Los Angeles Angels 4-2 and 5-3 and earning a 6-5 victory over Cleveland. Minnesota recently lost 4-3 to Los Angeles and 5-2 to Cleveland. Four of the Twins’ last five games were decided by two runs or fewer.
The Twins are batting .248 with 811 hits, 471 runs, and 120 home runs. They have produced a .323 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff owns a 4.62 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, with 349 walks and 804 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .251 against the Twins, who have compiled an even 27-27 record in night games.
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Minnesota’s main advantage is its performance in several offensive categories. The Twins hold the higher batting average, hit total, and slugging percentage in this matchup. They have also displayed some consistency over their last five games, scoring at least three runs four times and winning three contests. The primary weakness is the pitching profile, as Minnesota has the higher ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Its 4.62 team ERA could create problems against a Chicago offense that has scored more runs this season.
Chicago Returns Home With Back-to-Back Wins
Chicago carries a 54-42 overall record and a 27-19 home mark into the matchup. The Cubs have won three of their last five games, recently defeating Cincinnati 8-4 and 5-3 and earning a 9-7 victory over Baltimore. Chicago recently lost 4-0 to Cincinnati and 3-2 to Baltimore. The Cubs scored at least five runs in all three victories but managed only two total runs across their two losses.
The Cubs are batting .244 with 798 hits, 484 runs, and 121 home runs. Chicago has posted a .336 on-base percentage and a .411 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff carries a 4.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with 296 walks and 748 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .246 against the Cubs, who have produced a 33-23 record in night games.
Chicago’s strongest advantage is the combination of its home record and better team pitching numbers. The Cubs have a lower ERA and WHIP than Minnesota while allowing a lower opponent batting average. Chicago has also issued 53 fewer walks. Offensively, the Cubs have scored 13 more runs and hit one more home run despite trailing Minnesota in batting average and total hits. Their 27-19 home record gives them another measurable edge.
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago is my moneyline selection in the series opener. The Cubs have the better overall record, the stronger home record, and a 56.8% matchup predictor probability. Chicago also owns the better team ERA, WHIP, on-base percentage, and opponent batting average. Both clubs have won three of their last five, but the Cubs return home after consecutive victories in which they scored 13 combined runs. Minnesota’s competitive recent results make this a potentially close game, but Chicago’s broader advantages support the home side.
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
- Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.
I would take the over at 8.5. Minnesota and Chicago carry team ERAs of 4.62 and 4.33, while opposing batters are hitting .251 and .246 against their respective pitching staffs. The Cubs have scored at least five runs in three of their last five games, and Minnesota has reached at least four runs in three of its last five. Chicago’s scheduled starter also enters with a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Those supplied figures give the offenses a reasonable opportunity to push this game above the proposed total.
Final Score Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – Minnesota Twins 4
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