Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 23, 2026

The Minnesota Twins visit the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Minnesota has a 49-53 record and sits third in the AL Central, five games behind the division-leading White Sox. The Twins have dropped four straight games, including the first two contests of this series. Cleveland is 54-48 and sits one game behind first place after winning back-to-back games. The Guardians have won three of their last five contests and look to complete another strong series at home. Cash in a winner with our free MLB picks.

Minnesota Twins Looking to End Their Four-Game Skid

Minnesota has been productive at the plate this season, batting .247 while scoring 485 runs with 850 hits, 124 home runs, a .321 on-base percentage, and a .412 slugging percentage. Byron Buxton leads the Twins with a .275 batting average, 25 home runs, and a .572 slugging percentage. Josh Bell has driven in a team-high 60 runs, while Brooks Lee has added 14 home runs and 52 RBIs. Trevor Larnach is batting .291 with a .380 on-base percentage, giving Minnesota another dependable hitter near the top of the lineup.

The Twins have struggled more on the mound, posting a 4.75 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .255. Minnesota pitchers have recorded 843 strikeouts but have surrendered 124 home runs through 102 games. The Twins have allowed 18 runs over the first two games of this series and need a much stronger effort to avoid another defeat.

Injuries: Cole Sands (15-Day IL), Marco Raya (15-Day IL), Garrett Acton (60-Day IL), Connor Prielipp (15-Day IL), David Festa (60-Day IL).

Cleveland Guardians Looking to Stay in the Division Race

Cleveland is batting .233 while scoring 410 runs with 784 hits, 101 home runs, a .313 on-base percentage, and a .377 slugging percentage. Chase DeLauter has been the club's top offensive performer, batting .288 with 11 home runs and 50 RBIs. Brayan Rocchio leads the Guardians with 93 hits, while Rhys Hoskins has matched the team lead with 11 home runs. Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana continue to provide additional production throughout the lineup.

The Guardians have relied on pitching, recording a 3.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while holding opponents to a .238 batting average. Cleveland pitchers have struck out 927 batters through 102 games, one of the highest totals in baseball. The staff has also limited Minnesota to just six total runs through the first two games of the series.

Injuries: Tim Herrin (15-Day IL), Angel Martinez (10-Day IL), Jose Ramirez (10-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Minnesota Twins – Taj Bradley

Bradley is 9-4 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP across 107.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 92 hits while striking out 124 batters against 43 walks. Bradley has the swing-and-miss ability to keep Minnesota competitive if he limits free passes.

Cleveland Guardians – Gavin Williams

Williams is 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 119.1 innings. He has recorded 145 strikeouts while allowing 100 hits and 37 walks. Although Williams has surrendered 20 home runs, he has consistently worked deep into games and given Cleveland quality innings.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Game Pick

• Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland enters this matchup with the hotter team, winning the first two games of the series while outscoring Minnesota 18-6. The Guardians also own a significant edge on the mound with a 3.73 team ERA compared to Minnesota's 4.75 mark. Williams has been dependable throughout the season, and Cleveland's pitching staff has consistently limited opposing offenses. Minnesota has enough power to stay competitive, but the Guardians have played better baseball entering Thursday’s matchup.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Over/Under Pick

• Under

Both starting pitchers have produced solid seasons, and Cleveland's pitching staff has been one of the American League's strongest. The Guardians have allowed only six runs through the first two games of the series while continuing to rank near the top of the league in strikeouts. Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent all season, batting .233 with 410 runs, making a lower-scoring matchup more likely. With Bradley and Williams capable of working multiple innings, the under will cash.