Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Friday July 3 2026
Use Code SSWC The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees begin their series on Friday, July 3, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. The Yankees enter as -186 moneyline favorites, while the Twins are +153 underdogs. The run line has Minnesota at +1.5 (-131) and New York at -1.5 (+109), while the total is set at 9.5 runs. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage
Minnesota is expected to hand the ball to Mike Paredes, who enters the game with a 0-1 record, a 4.26 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP across 25.1 innings. He has allowed 23 hits, struck out 13 batters, walked nine, and surrendered four home runs. The Yankees are scheduled to counter with Gerrit Cole, who is 2-3 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 37.2 innings. Cole has given up 36 hits while recording 34 strikeouts, issuing 10 walks, and allowing seven home runs.
Minnesota Tries to Continue Its Recent Success
The Twins come into this matchup with a 42-46 overall record and a 20-23 record on the road. Minnesota has played solid baseball recently, winning three of its last five games. The Twins recently won over Houston twice and Colorado once while recently losing to Houston and Colorado. That stretch has provided some positive momentum as they head into a difficult road matchup.
Minnesota is batting .246 as a team with 429 runs, 733 hits, and 110 home runs. The Twins own a .321 on-base percentage and a .412 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 4.82 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP while issuing 319 walks, recording 722 strikeouts, and allowing opponents to hit .255. Minnesota is 17-21 in day games.
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The Twins' biggest strength has been their power production. Their 110 home runs and 429 runs scored both exceed New York's totals, showing they are capable of generating offense. However, the pitching staff has struggled more consistently than the Yankees, as reflected by the higher ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average.
New York Returns Home Looking to Snap Its Skid
The Yankees enter Friday with a 48-38 overall record and a strong 22-18 home record. Despite their solid season, New York has dropped each of its last five games, recently losing three straight to Detroit and twice to Boston. The Yankees will look to put that difficult stretch behind them as they return home.
New York is hitting .236 with 417 runs, 673 hits, and 124 home runs while carrying a .319 on-base percentage and a .421 slugging percentage. On the mound, the Yankees have been one of the stronger pitching clubs, posting a 3.36 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. They have issued 261 walks, struck out 745 batters, and limited opponents to a .227 batting average. New York is also 17-13 in day games.
The Yankees' greatest advantage comes from their pitching staff. Their ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average are all significantly better than Minnesota's, giving them a strong foundation despite their recent losing streak. Their ability to miss bats has also been evident with 745 strikeouts.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Pick
- Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline
New York has lost five consecutive games, but the overall numbers still favor the Yankees. They own the better overall record, stronger home record, and a clear edge in team pitching with a 3.36 ERA compared to Minnesota's 4.82. The Yankees also hold the advantage in the matchup predictor and have the better WHIP and opponent batting average. Those factors make New York my choice on the moneyline.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Total Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
I'm taking the over 9.5 runs in this game. Minnesota has already hit 110 home runs this season, while New York leads this matchup with 124. The Twins have scored 429 runs, and the Yankees have produced 417. Although New York's pitching numbers have been strong overall, both clubs have shown enough power to make this total attainable.
Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 6 – Minnesota Twins 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.
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