Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC In our Twins vs. Phillies prediction, the Minnesota Twins are fourth in the AL Central with a 69-90 record so far. They are having right-hander Joe Ryan get the start as he is coming off a loss against the Cleveland Guardians, where he pitched 5.0 innings and allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits with a pair of walks and five strikeouts.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing well as they are sitting in first place in the NL East with a 94-65 record entering this game. Right-hander Aaron Nola takes the ball and lost last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he pitched 5.1 innings and gave up four runs on seven hits with two walks and four strikeouts.
Cover the diamond — MLB picks for Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies in a fast read.
Twins Looking Towards the Future
The Minnesota Twins have been an average offensive team as they are tied with the San Diego Padres for 17th in the sport with a .708 team OPS while averaging 4.22 runs per game. Minnesota is a bit too aggressive ass they are 19th with 489 total walks. Center fielder Byron Buxton has been hitting at a strong level as he has a .879 OPS with 34 home runs, 82 RBI, 96 runs scored, and 24 steals while never being caught.
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Joe Ryan has been all over the place, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the fifth percentile in barrel percentage, 11th percentile in chase percentage, 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage, and 87th percentile in walk percentage. He has a six-pitch arsenal (fastball, sweeper, splitter, sinker, slider, curveball) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .203 batting average and .388 slugging percentage with 16 home runs and 105 strikeouts against it. Joe Ryan has not pitched against the Phillies in his career.
Injury Report for Minnesota
- Second baseman Luke Keaschall: Thumb (OUT)
- Pitcher Pablo Lopez: Forearm (OUT)
- Right fielder Matt Wallner: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Topa: Oblique (OUT)
- Left fielder Alan Roden: Thumb (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony Misiewicz: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher David Festa: Shoulder (OUT)
Phillies Looking to Keep Bats Hot
The Philadelphia Phillies are doing an incredible job at the plate as they are third in baseball with a .764 team OPS while scoring 4.86 runs per game. The team has been hitting for an outstanding amount of power as their 210 home runs is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for eighth in baseball. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has been swinging the bat at an amazing level as he is posting a .245/.369/.573 slash line with 56 home runs, 132 RBI, 110 runs scored, and 10 steals while being caught twice.
Aaron Nola is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 19th percentile in xERA, 21st percentile in hard hit percentage, 23rd percentile in xBA, and 25th percentile in barrel percentage. He has five different pitches (fastball, knuckle curve, sinker, changeup, cutter) and his cutter has been getting hit as hitters have a .391 batting average and .609 slugging percentage with one home run and five strikeouts. Nola faced the Twins once last season in a no-decision as he pitched six innings and gave up one run on six hits with three walks and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Philadelphia
- Pitcher Jose Alvarado: Forearm (OUT)
- Shortstop Trea Turner: Hamstring (OUT)
- Pitcher Daniel Robert: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Zack Wheeler: Blood Clot (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Romano: Finger (OUT)
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Spread Pick for Twins vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies ML ( units)
In the month of September, these pitchers are struggling but there is a gap. Joe Ryan is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in 11.0 innings (three starts) while Aaron Nola is 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA and a .250 batting average against in 22.1 innings (four starts) in that stretch. During the last seven days, these teams are scoring at different levels as Minnesota is averaging 2.57 runs in their last seven games while Philadelphia is scoring 5.0 runs in their previous six games played. All in all, take the Philadelphia Phillies to win this game to open the series.
Over/Under Pick for Twins vs. Phillies
- OVER (4 units)
Both starting pitchers have been terrible in their last seven starts as Joe Ryan is 2-4 with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 33.2 innings, while Aaron Nola is 3-3 with a 6.87 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in that span. Throughout the season, these bullpens are getting rocked as well as the Twins are 26th in the bigs with a 4.64 reliever ER,A while the Phillies are 20th with a 4.30 bullpen ERA so far. The over hit in two of the last three games against one another last season so take the OVER here.
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