Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Saturday August 22, 2026

The Minnesota Twins travel to Petco Park in San Diego, California, to face the San Diego Padres on Saturday, August 22. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Minnesota enters the matchup at 63-65 overall and 28-34 on the road, while San Diego is 68-60 overall and 37-26 at home. The Twins have won three straight completed games, while the Padres have alternated wins and losses over their last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Minnesota is expected to start Dean Kremer, who is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 53.1 innings. He has allowed 47 hits with 53 strikeouts, 16 walks and 13 home runs. San Diego counters with Casey Mize, who is 5-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 102.0 innings. He has surrendered 84 hits while striking out 95, walking 25 and allowing seven home runs. The Padres have the stronger starting-pitching profile entering Saturday's matchup.

Minnesota Brings Momentum to San Diego

Minnesota comes into this game at 63-65 and sits second in the AL Central. The Twins are 28-34 away from home, but their recent form has improved considerably after winning each of their last three completed games. Those victories came by scores of 4-2, 4-1 and 6-4, giving Minnesota some momentum entering this road series.

The Twins are batting .246 as a team with 592 runs, 1,062 hits and 147 home runs. They carry a .321 on-base percentage and .406 slugging percentage, giving them the better offensive statistical profile of the two teams.

Pitching has been the larger concern for Minnesota. The staff owns a 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while opponents are batting .252. The Twins have scored enough to remain competitive, but their run prevention has been inconsistent enough to make the starting matchup especially important Saturday.

Padres Look to Capitalize on Home-Field Edge

San Diego enters at 68-60 and is second in the NL West. The Padres have played particularly well at Petco Park, where they own a 37-26 record. Their recent form has been inconsistent, however, as they have gone 2-3 across their last five completed games.

The Padres are batting .238 with 543 runs, 1,001 hits and 143 home runs. Their .315 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage trail Minnesota's offensive marks, so San Diego does not necessarily hold the advantage when comparing the lineups statistically.

The Padres have been better on the mound, posting a 4.05 team ERA and 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a .243 batting average. That pitching advantage becomes more significant Saturday because San Diego's scheduled starter owns a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, while Minnesota's starter carries a 5.40 ERA.

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline

San Diego is the preferred side because of the combination of home-field advantage and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. The Padres are 37-26 at Petco Park, while Minnesota is below .500 on the road at 28-34.

The Twins do bring the better recent form and slightly stronger offensive numbers, but San Diego has the better team ERA and WHIP along with a substantial edge in the projected starting matchup. With the Padres' starter allowing fewer baserunners and carrying an ERA more than two runs lower, San Diego has the cleaner path to controlling the game.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. San Diego's scheduled starter has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just seven home runs over 102 innings, giving the Padres a strong chance to limit Minnesota's offense.

The Padres have also scored only 543 runs while carrying a .238 team batting average and .389 slugging percentage. Minnesota is the better offensive team statistically, but Petco Park combined with San Diego's pitching advantage makes a lower-scoring game the more attractive angle. A result in the range of 4-3 or 5-3 would fit the statistical profile of this matchup.

This preview was completed before play on Friday, August 21, 2026.