MLB Picks for October 1, 2026

The MLB postseason comes down to one game on Thursday, October 1, as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park for a winner-take-all Game 3 of their National League Wild Card Series. The series is tied 1-1 after two games that have been decided by a combined three runs, setting up an elimination matchup between two familiar NL East rivals.

Atlanta struck first with a 5-3 victory in Game 1, but Philadelphia kept its season alive Wednesday with a dramatic 4-3 win in 10 innings. The Phillies erased a 3-1 deficit in the eighth inning before eventually pushing across the deciding run in extras.

The betting market reflects just how close Thursday's matchup appears. Philadelphia is a small moneyline favorite, while Atlanta is priced close to even money. The total is sitting between 7 and 7.5 runs depending on the sportsbook.

For more MLB predictions throughout the postseason, be sure to check out StatSalt's free MLB picks.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Best Bet

Thursday, October 1 — Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia

There hasn't been much separating Philadelphia and Atlanta through the first two games.

The Braves have scored eight runs in the series while the Phillies have scored seven. Atlanta's 5-3 victory Tuesday required a late rally, while Philadelphia's 4-3 win Wednesday wasn't decided until the 10th inning. Neither team has been able to consistently create separation.

That makes Thursday's pitching situation especially important.

Philadelphia has several possibilities available in an elimination game, including Aaron Nola and potentially Zack Wheeler on short rest. Wheeler worked six innings in Philadelphia's regular-season finale Sunday, meaning using him Thursday would require an aggressive postseason approach. Regardless of who officially starts, the Phillies can treat Game 3 differently from an ordinary regular-season game and use their available pitching staff according to matchups rather than worrying about preserving arms for another Wild Card game.

Atlanta faces its own pitching puzzle. Grant Holmes is expected to play an important role, while the Braves can also use multiple relievers in what amounts to an all-hands-on-deck game. There is no tomorrow for the loser, which should make both managers considerably quicker to make a pitching change at the first sign of trouble.

That becomes particularly important when evaluating Thursday's total.

Why Under 7.5 Makes the Cut

The first two games have produced eight and seven runs, but those final scores don't completely tell the story.

Game 2 required 10 innings just to reach seven combined runs. Atlanta carried a 3-1 advantage into the eighth before Philadelphia hit back-to-back home runs to tie the game. The Phillies finally went ahead in the 10th, and Atlanta had another opportunity in the bottom half before the game ended 4-3.

Atlanta also had numerous opportunities to produce considerably more offense Wednesday but couldn't cash them in. The Braves stranded 11 runners and failed to score during a bases-loaded opportunity in the sixth inning. That inability to convert baserunners helped keep the game within reach for Philadelphia.

Thursday presents an even different situation.

This is no longer a normal postseason game where a manager needs his starter to provide six or seven innings. If trouble develops in the third or fourth inning, there is little reason to wait. Both teams can begin matching pitchers against specific portions of the opposing lineup considerably earlier than they would during the regular season.

Philadelphia also showed in Game 1 that it can get quality innings from an unconventional pitching setup. The Phillies allowed five runs in the opener, but the game remained relatively controlled until Atlanta broke through late. Game 2 was even tighter, with the Braves scoring only three times despite putting plenty of traffic on the bases.

The number determines whether this wager belongs on the card.

At Under 7.5, bettors have protection against another 4-3 final while still cashing on virtually any game in which one offense fails to reach three runs. That's valuable considering neither club has scored more than five in either game of this series.

A move to 7 changes the equation considerably because a 4-3 or 5-2 result becomes a push instead of a win. The under remains the direction I prefer at seven, but Under 7.5 is the number that qualifies as Thursday's official Best Bet.

MLB Best Bet: Phillies-Braves Under 7.5

One More Betting Angle to Watch

Philadelphia's moneyline is the secondary angle worth monitoring.

The Phillies could have easily been eliminated Wednesday. Instead, they overcame a two-run deficit in the eighth and survived extra innings on the road. That doesn't guarantee anything Thursday, but it does demonstrate how little separates these teams entering the deciding game.

Philadelphia's potential pitching options are particularly intriguing. If the Phillies can get meaningful innings from one of their established starters before aggressively turning the game over to the bullpen, they have multiple ways to navigate nine innings.

Atlanta has the advantage of playing Game 3 at Truist Park and went 52-29 at home during the regular season. The Braves also dominated the regular-season series against Philadelphia, winning nine of 13 meetings.

That makes paying an inflated price for Philadelphia unattractive. However, at approximately Phillies -115 or better, the moneyline would be my secondary lean rather than laying -1.5 runs in a series where the first two games have been so competitive.

It isn't strong enough to replace the total as the official wager, though.

Thursday's MLB Betting Verdict

A winner-take-all playoff game between division rivals doesn't necessarily mean bettors should automatically play the under. In this particular matchup, however, the first two games and the pitching possibilities create a compelling case.

Atlanta won Game 1 by two runs. Philadelphia won Game 2 by one run in extra innings. Through 19 innings of postseason baseball, these teams have combined for only 15 runs.

Now both managers enter Game 3 without needing to save pitching for another Wild Card game.

That creates the possibility of aggressive bullpen management from the opening innings, especially if either team's starting plan encounters trouble. With neither offense consistently taking control of the series, getting the total at 7.5 provides enough room for another competitive game without requiring a complete pitching duel.

Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Under 7.5

Betting lines and starting pitchers can change before first pitch. The recommended wager reflects the available market at the time of writing, so always check the current number before placing a bet.