MLB Picks for October 26, 2026

MLB Best Bets for Monday, October 26, 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers are two wins away from their first World Series championship, and the Tampa Bay Rays are already in a difficult spot. Milwaukee took both games at home, winning 3-2 on Friday and 5-4 on Saturday. Now the series heads to Tropicana Field for Game 3 on Monday night, with first pitch scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on FOX.

Both games have been decided by one run, and Tampa Bay certainly hasn't been overwhelmed. Still, the Brewers keep finding ways to win close games, particularly with their bullpen. That's something worth remembering before automatically backing the Rays just because they're finally playing at home. Check out our free MLB picks for more postseason predictions.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet

Milwaukee comes into Game 3 with a 2-0 series advantage after pulling off a pretty remarkable comeback Saturday. The Brewers trailed 4-0 in the first inning before battling back to win 5-4. They tied the game in the sixth and took the lead in the seventh, then handed things over to a bullpen that has been outstanding throughout October. Milwaukee relievers have posted a 1.24 ERA through the club's first ten postseason games. That's not a small sample anymore, and it's a major reason the Brewers have been so difficult to finish off.

Robert Gasser gets the start for Milwaukee. The left-hander has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across nine postseason innings. Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, who has been excellent himself, posting a 1.08 ERA across 16.2 playoff innings. Peralta has allowed 12 hits and seven walks while striking out 12. The Rays are 3-0 in his postseason starts, so Milwaukee isn't getting an easy matchup.

Tampa Bay has been excellent at home, going 55-26 during the regular season. The Rays also have the benefit of returning to familiar surroundings after losing two close games in Milwaukee. But here's what bothers me about laying money with Tampa Bay: the Brewers have repeatedly demonstrated that they don't need a huge offensive night to win. They've been comfortable playing close games, and their relief pitching has been considerably more dependable than most opponents have managed to handle.

Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+100 or Better)

I'll take Milwaukee at plus money. Tampa Bay has the stronger home-field situation and a starting pitcher who has been terrific during the playoffs, but the Brewers have the better bullpen numbers and have already shown they can come from behind against this opponent. Gasser doesn't need to dominate for seven innings. If he keeps Milwaukee competitive through five, the Brewers have enough late-inning pitching to finish the job.

The biggest concern is Peralta. He's been excellent in October, and Tampa Bay could take control if he works deep into the game. Still, the Brewers have been the better team at handling close postseason situations. Getting an even-money return on a club that has won nine of its first ten playoff games is a wager I'm comfortable making.

MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+100 or Better)

MLB Best Bet of the Day

Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+100 or better) is Monday's MLB Best Bet of the Day. The Brewers have won both World Series games, their bullpen has been exceptional, and their ability to produce late runs gives them a realistic opportunity to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Tampa Bay is dangerous at home, and Peralta could make this a long night for Milwaukee's hitters. But the Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt in close games, especially at a plus-money price.

Final Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+100 or Better)

Betting lines, starting pitchers and player availability may change before first pitch. Confirm current odds before placing a wager.