MLB Picks for October 4, 2026

Sunday's MLB postseason schedule features two National League Division Series matchups. The San Diego Padres visit the Milwaukee Brewers before the Atlanta Braves face the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. With the best-of-five Division Series underway, Sunday's games give teams an early opportunity to take control before the series changes venues.

Our MLB Best Bets focus on the single strongest wager from each game rather than forcing side and total predictions from every matchup. For more postseason predictions throughout October, check out StatSalt's free MLB picks.

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

San Diego sends Michael King to the mound against Milwaukee's Logan Henderson. King finished the regular season 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA, while Henderson went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA. Milwaukee had the better regular season at 103-59, including a dominant 55-26 home record, but the starting matchup gives San Diego enough pitching to remain competitive.

King has also pitched well against Milwaukee, allowing one run in three of his four career starts against the Brewers. Henderson presents a difficult matchup after posting a 2.19 ERA during the second half, so backing San Diego outright carries unnecessary risk. Instead, the run line gives us protection in a game that has the ingredients for a tight postseason contest.

Best Bet: San Diego Padres +1.5

Taking San Diego +1.5 allows us to back King's ability to keep the Padres close without requiring them to win in Milwaukee. Both clubs have quality pitching available, and a low-scoring environment makes the extra run increasingly valuable. Milwaukee can still protect its home field with a one-run victory and our wager cashes.

The price matters, but San Diego +1.5 is the strongest way to attack this matchup. Rather than paying a substantial moneyline price on Milwaukee, we'll take the additional run with a Padres team capable of turning this into a one-possession game late.

MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres +1.5

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bet

Atlanta faces another difficult pitching assignment with Blake Snell scheduled for Los Angeles. Snell finished the regular season 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA and gives the Dodgers a significant advantage at the front of the game. Atlanta's starter remains officially TBD, making the Braves' pitching plan the largest uncertainty surrounding Sunday's matchup.

The betting price is more reasonable than the premium often attached to Los Angeles. The Dodgers are currently around -150 to -153, with Atlanta approximately +125 and the total at 7. That gives us an opportunity to back Snell and Los Angeles without needing the Dodgers to cover the -1.5 run line.

Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline

Snell is the primary reason to side with Los Angeles. Atlanta's unsettled pitching situation makes matching the Dodgers inning-for-inning considerably more difficult, while Los Angeles doesn't need to produce a comfortable victory for this wager to cash.

At Dodgers -155 or better, the price remains reasonable enough for a postseason favorite with the clearer starting-pitching situation. Rather than laying -1.5 and potentially losing on a one-run Dodgers victory, we'll simply back Los Angeles to win.

MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-155 or better)

MLB Best Bet of the Day

Of Sunday's two selections, San Diego Padres +1.5 earns our MLB Best Bet of the Day. Michael King gives San Diego a legitimate starting-pitching foundation, and getting the additional run provides protection if Milwaukee wins another close postseason game. The Padres don't have to pull the upset for us to cash; they simply need to avoid losing by multiple runs.

MLB Best Bet of the Day: San Diego Padres +1.5

Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information can change before first pitch. The recommendations reflect the available information and market at the time of writing, so always compare the current numbers before placing a wager.