MLB Picks for October 5, 2026

Monday's MLB postseason schedule is all American League, with two Division Series Game 2 matchups and both home teams trying to avoid very different kinds of pressure. Chicago already owns a series lead in Cleveland, while Tampa Bay gets another home game against New York after taking the opener. The best values on the board are both underdogs, with the White Sox and Rays offering plus-money prices despite strong season-long betting profiles.

For more daily baseball coverage, check out our MLB Picks throughout the postseason.

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick

Chicago remains one of the more interesting underdog teams on Monday's board. The White Sox are +136 against Cleveland, with Anthony Kay scheduled to face Gavin Williams. Chicago finished 87-78 on the moneyline for +13.60 units, while Cleveland went 41-41 at home and lost 13.80 units in those games. That difference matters when the Guardians are being asked to justify another substantial favorite's price.

The postseason backdrop also favors taking a serious look at the dog. Division Series underdogs are 34-36 since 2022 but still show +8.60 units of profit, illustrating how plus-money payouts can overcome a losing straight-up record. Chicago also finished 93-72 on the first-five run line for +10.70 units, including a 49-35 road mark, so the White Sox have repeatedly shown they can stay competitive early enough to give the full-game moneyline a chance.

Cleveland has the more accomplished Game 2 starter in Williams, but the price already reflects that advantage. At +136, Chicago does not have to be the better team every night; it only has to win often enough for the payout to justify the risk. The number remains attractive down to roughly +120.

Pick: Chicago White Sox ML +136

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick

Tampa Bay is the other plus-money side worth backing Monday. The Rays are +110 at home against the Yankees, with Freddy Peralta set to oppose Cam Schlittler. Tampa Bay finished 99-64 for +22.40 units on the moneyline and was even better at home, going 56-26 for +18.30 units. New York won 95 games but still finished slightly negative on the moneyline overall.

The matchup becomes more appealing because the Rays are getting an underdog price in the building where they were most profitable. New York did finish 47-35 away from home, so this is not a blind fade of the Yankees, but Tampa Bay does not need to win at the same rate as a favorite would. At +110, the Rays get a more forgiving break-even point while carrying one of the strongest home moneyline profiles in baseball.

The total of 6.5 also has a legitimate Under case. Yankees road games finished 45-34-3 to the Under for +7.50 units, while Tampa Bay home games were 42-35-5 to the Under for +3.50 units. Still, the side is the cleaner wager because a total this low leaves almost no margin for error, while Tampa Bay's plus-money price directly rewards its home advantage.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML +110

MLB Best Bet for October 5

Chicago +136 gets the slight nod as Monday's best value. The White Sox produced +13.60 units during the season, Cleveland lost 13.80 units at home, and Chicago's first-five road results provide additional evidence that the White Sox can stay competitive long enough to cash the full-game price. Tampa Bay +110 is close behind and may be the steadier home-side option, but Chicago offers the larger payout without requiring a dramatically different win probability.

Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML +136

For more of today's top plays across the board, visit our Best Bets.