New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Friday July 3 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets travel to face the Atlanta Braves on Friday, July 3, 2026, at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. Atlanta enters the matchup as a -125 moneyline favorite, while New York is listed at +104. The run line features the Mets at +1.5 (-193) and the Braves at -1.5 (+158), while the total is set at 9.5 runs. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Ready for the Series Opener
The Mets are scheduled to start Christian Scott, who enters Friday with a 2-0 record, a 3.20 ERA, and a 1.33 WHIP over 45.0 innings. He has allowed 39 hits while striking out 53 batters, issuing 21 walks, and giving up five home runs. Atlanta is expected to counter with Grant Holmes, who is 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP across 77.1 innings. Holmes has surrendered 68 hits, recorded 69 strikeouts, walked 37 batters, and allowed 14 home runs.
New York Looks to Find Consistency on the Road
The Mets enter this contest with a 36-51 overall record and a 17-27 road mark. They have split their last five games, going 2-3 during that stretch. New York recently defeated Toronto and Philadelphia while recently losing to Toronto twice and Philadelphia once. The Mets will be looking to string together a stronger stretch after struggling to gain momentum throughout the season.
New York is batting .229 as a team while scoring 346 runs on 667 hits. The Mets have hit 98 home runs with a .298 on-base percentage and a .375 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.12 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. The staff has also recorded 793 strikeouts with 307 walks, and the Mets are 17-20 in day games.
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One area where New York has remained competitive is on the mound. The Mets have held opponents to a .234 batting average and have accumulated 793 strikeouts, both of which compare well entering this matchup. Their scheduled starter also brings a lower ERA than Atlanta's, giving New York an opportunity to keep the game close.
Atlanta Attempts to Protect Home Field
Atlanta comes into Friday with a 50-35 overall record and a 25-16 home record. The Braves have gone 1-4 over their last five games, recently defeating St. Louis while recently losing to St. Louis twice and San Francisco twice. Although the recent results have not gone their way, Atlanta still owns one of the stronger records entering this matchup.
The Braves are hitting .246 with 398 runs, 701 hits, and 104 home runs. They carry a .311 on-base percentage and a .406 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Atlanta owns a 3.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average. The Braves have issued 277 walks, recorded 723 strikeouts, and are 14-13 in day games.
Atlanta's biggest strength has been the balance between its offense and pitching. The Braves have scored more runs, collected more hits, and hit more home runs than New York while also posting the lower ERA, lower WHIP, and lower opponent batting average. That complete statistical profile explains why they enter the game as the favorite.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline
Atlanta gets my pick on the moneyline. The Braves own the better overall record, a strong 25-16 home record, and advantages in nearly every major team statistic. While New York's scheduled starter has the better ERA, Atlanta's overall pitching staff has been more effective throughout the season, and the Braves also hold the edge offensively in runs scored, hits, home runs, batting average, and slugging percentage.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Total Pick
- Pick: Under 9.5
I'm taking the under 9.5 runs. Atlanta has posted a 3.40 team ERA and has limited opponents to a .224 batting average, while New York's pitching staff has also held opponents to a .234 average. Both scheduled starters enter with ERAs under 4.00, and I think the pitching keeps this contest below the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 5 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.
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