New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Monday August 10 2026
The New York Mets open a National League East series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on Monday, August 10, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV, SNY, and BravesVision providing television coverage. The odds for this game have not been released at the time of this writing. Baseball bettors can find additional analysis throughout the season by visiting our free MLB picks.
Atlanta owns a commanding lead over New York in the division standings, but the season series has been much more competitive. The Mets have won six of the first ten completed meetings, with the teams combining for nine or more runs in six of those contests. Monday’s pitching matchup could produce a more controlled game, although Atlanta’s considerable offensive advantage makes the home side the logical favorite.
Starting Pitchers
Christian Scott will start for New York opposite Atlanta right-hander Bryce Elder. Scott is 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 74.1 innings, allowing 62 hits and seven home runs while recording 92 strikeouts against 32 walks. Elder is 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP across 126.2 innings. He has allowed 110 hits and 19 home runs with 104 strikeouts and 42 walks. Scott owns the lower ERA and the better strikeout rate, but Elder has worked considerably deeper into the season while maintaining the lower WHIP.
New York Tries to Carry Its Recent Momentum Forward
The Mets enter Monday with a 51-67 overall record and a 26-33 mark away from home. New York won four consecutive games before suffering a 9-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Mets went 4-1 across the five completed games supplied for this preview, scoring at least six runs in each victory and producing 31 runs during the winning streak.
New York is batting .234 with 488 runs, 928 hits, and 141 home runs. The Mets have recorded a .304 on-base percentage and a .385 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.13 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 1,062 strikeouts and 421 walks while limiting opposing hitters to a .240 batting average.
The Mets’ greatest opportunity comes from Scott’s ability to generate strikeouts and limit home runs. He has recorded more strikeouts than innings pitched while surrendering only seven homers. However, New York’s offense has been inconsistent throughout the season. The nine-run shutout loss on Saturday demonstrated the risk of supporting a team that ranks behind Atlanta in every supplied major offensive category.
Atlanta Looks to Reassert Its Home-Field Strength
The Braves are 70-47 overall and an excellent 39-20 at Truist Park. Atlanta won three of its five most recently supplied games, sweeping three contests against Miami before losing consecutive one-run decisions at Yankee Stadium. The Braves were competitive in both defeats, losing 3-2 in ten innings on Friday and 5-4 on Saturday.
Atlanta owns a .250 team batting average with 574 runs, 993 hits, and 158 home runs. The Braves have added a .315 on-base percentage and a .420 slugging percentage. Their pitchers have produced a 3.63 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and 1,009 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .229 batting average.
The Braves possess the more complete statistical profile. They have scored 86 more runs than New York while hitting 17 additional home runs, and their .420 slugging percentage exceeds the Mets’ mark by 35 points. Atlanta also holds meaningful advantages in ERA, WHIP, and opponents’ batting average. The primary concern is that Elder has surrendered 19 home runs, which gives New York a possible path to remaining competitive through its power hitting.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction
- Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Atlanta is the preferred side, and the run line offers more value than laying -160 on the moneyline. The Braves have won nearly two-thirds of their home games, while the Mets are seven games below .500 on the road. Atlanta also holds clear season-long advantages in offensive production and run prevention.
Scott’s 3.15 ERA makes this more challenging than the teams’ overall records suggest. Nevertheless, the Braves have the deeper offensive profile and should create scoring opportunities even if Scott works effectively through the early innings. Atlanta’s pitching staff has also limited opponents to a .229 batting average, providing enough support for the Braves to pull away in the middle or late innings.
- Pick: Under 9
The under is the preferred total at 9. Scott has surrendered only seven home runs in 74.1 innings and has the strikeout ability to limit Atlanta’s biggest innings. Elder’s 1.20 WHIP is also encouraging against a New York offense batting only .234 with a .304 on-base percentage.
New York’s recent scoring surge introduces some risk, as the Mets scored six or more runs in four consecutive victories. However, they were shut out in their most recent supplied game, and Atlanta has the stronger overall pitching numbers. A total of 9 provides protection against a moderate amount of offense without requiring both starters to dominate.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 6, New York Mets 2
This preview was written prior to game play on Sunday.