New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 6, 2026
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves continue their series on Monday, July 6, 2026, at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM with coverage available on MLB.TV. Atlanta enters as a -126 moneyline favorite, while New York is listed at +105. The run line features the Mets at +1.5 (-193) and the Braves at -1.5 (+158). The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for even more baseball predictions and betting analysis.
Starting Pitchers to Watch
The Mets are expected to start Freddy Peralta, who brings a 5-7 record into this matchup along with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 95.1 innings. He has allowed 97 hits while striking out 92 batters, walking 38, and surrendering 13 home runs. Atlanta is scheduled to counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who has gone 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP across 51.2 innings. Lopez has given up 45 hits while recording 46 strikeouts, issuing 22 walks, and allowing six home runs.
New York Seeks Another Upset Victory
The Mets enter Monday with a 37-53 overall record and an 18-29 record on the road. They have gone 2-3 over their last five games, recently earning a 10-9 victory over Atlanta after dropping the previous two games in the series. Before arriving in Atlanta, New York split a pair of games with Toronto, giving the club two wins over its last five contests.
New York has posted a .230 team batting average while scoring 352 runs on 687 hits this season. The Mets have hit 101 home runs with a .298 on-base percentage and a .375 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.25 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .235 batting average. The club has also recorded 809 strikeouts compared to 315 walks.
One encouraging area for the Mets has been their ability to miss bats. Their pitching staff has accumulated 809 strikeouts, which is higher than Atlanta's total, and they have also held opponents to a .235 batting average. If they can combine that pitching performance with timely offense, they can remain competitive despite their overall record.
Atlanta Looks to Respond at Home
The Braves come into this matchup with a strong 52-36 overall record and a 27-17 mark at Truist Park. Atlanta has won three of its last five games, including victories over the Mets in the first two games of the series and another win against St. Louis before Sunday's narrow 10-9 loss. The Braves have consistently found ways to produce wins throughout the season and remain one of the stronger home teams in this matchup.
Atlanta is batting .247 as a team while scoring 422 runs on 727 hits. The Braves have hit 113 home runs with a .312 on-base percentage and a .411 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been equally effective, posting a 3.46 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to a .227 batting average. Atlanta pitchers have struck out 742 batters while issuing 285 walks.
The Braves have displayed balance throughout the season. They own advantages in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. That combination of offensive production and reliable pitching has been a major factor in their success entering this contest.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Pick
- Pick: Braves Moneyline (-126)
Atlanta has been the more consistent club this season, entering with a significantly better overall record and a strong home record. The Braves also hold advantages across several key offensive and pitching categories, while their starting pitcher enters with the lower ERA and WHIP. Although the Mets picked up an exciting win on Sunday, I like Atlanta to bounce back and earn the series victory.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
I'm taking the over 8.5 in this matchup. Sunday's meeting finished with plenty of offense, and both teams have surpassed the 100-home run mark this season. While Atlanta has posted solid pitching numbers overall, each offense has shown the ability to score, and I think this game has a good chance to finish above the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 6 – New York Mets 4