New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 4, 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets visit the Atlanta Braves on Saturday at 8:08 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. The Mets are 36-51 and sit fifth in the NL East, while the Braves are 50-35 and lead the division by 2.5 games over Philadelphia. New York has alternated wins and losses over its last five games after a series in Toronto, while Atlanta has dropped four of its last five despite remaining atop the division. The Mets won two of the first three meetings between these rivals earlier this season. Cash a winning ticket with our free MLB picks.
New York Mets Looking to Pull an Upset
The Mets have struggled offensively throughout the season, ranking 27th in Major League Baseball with a .229 team batting average while scoring 346 runs. They have collected 667 hits, 98 home runs, a .298 on-base percentage, and a .375 slugging percentage. Juan Soto has been the clear offensive leader, batting .293 with 17 home runs, 39 RBI, and a .403 on-base percentage. Bo Bichette has added 87 hits, 10 home runs, and a team-high 46 RBI, while Carson Benge is batting .259 with 10 home runs.
The Mets have been more competitive on the mound than at the plate. Their pitching staff ranks 13th in MLB with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .232 batting average. Sean Manaea has delivered mixed results this season, and New York will need him to keep Atlanta's dangerous lineup in check to have a chance in this series.
Injuries: Jorge Polanco (60-Day IL), Luis Robert Jr. (60-Day IL), Justin Hagenman (60-Day IL), Dedniel Núñez (60-Day IL), Clay Holmes (60-Day IL).
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Atlanta Braves Looking to Protect First Place
Atlanta has produced another balanced season offensively, batting .246 with 403 runs, 709 hits, 104 home runs, a .311 on-base percentage, and a .404 slugging percentage. Matt Olson continues to anchor the lineup with a team-high 20 home runs and 52 RBI while batting .270. Michael Harris II is hitting .293 with 14 home runs, Ozzie Albies is batting .273 with 13 home runs and 48 RBI, and Drake Baldwin has added 14 home runs. Even with Ronald Acuña Jr. sidelined, Atlanta has enough depth throughout the lineup to generate consistent scoring opportunities.
The Braves have paired that offense with one of the league's better pitching staffs. Atlanta ranks third in MLB with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to a .226 batting average. Chris Sale has once again been among the National League's most dependable starters, giving Atlanta a significant edge in this matchup.
Injuries: Kyle Farmer (10-Day IL), Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-Day IL), Danny Young (60-Day IL), Sean Murphy (60-Day IL), Robert Suarez (15-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
New York Mets – Sean Manaea
Manaea is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 63.0 innings. He has allowed 64 hits while striking out 64 batters and issuing 22 walks.
Atlanta Braves – Chris Sale
Sale is 8-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across 90.0 innings. He has surrendered just 75 hits while striking out 109 batters and walking only 22.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Game Pick
- Atlanta Braves
Atlanta owns the advantage entering this matchup. Chris Sale has been outstanding all season with a 2.10 ERA and 109 strikeouts, giving the Braves a major edge over Sean Manaea. The Braves have the deeper lineup, led by Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies, while the Mets rank near the bottom of MLB in batting average and on-base percentage. Atlanta also enters with the third-ranked pitching staff in baseball, making it difficult for a New York offense that has struggled to produce consistently. Atlanta is the best play to win this divisional matchup.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick
- Under
Chris Sale has consistently limited opposing lineups and should be able to control a Mets offense batting just .229 this season. New York's pitching has quietly been respectable despite the club's record, ranking in the middle of the league with a 4.06 ERA. Atlanta may generate enough offense to secure the victory, but Sale's presence significantly lowers New York's scoring outlook. With one elite starter taking the mound and one offense that has struggled throughout the year, the under is the play.
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