New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 5 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sunday, July 5, 2026, at 12:30 PM ET, with coverage on NBC/Peacock. New York enters at 36-52 overall and 17-28 on the road, while Atlanta comes in at 51-35 overall and 26-16 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives New York a 41.8 percent chance to win and Atlanta a 58.2 percent chance. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Set the Tone
The Mets are scheduled to start Nolan McLean, who is 5-5 with a 3.78 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, 95.1 innings pitched, 71 hits allowed, 113 strikeouts, 36 walks, and 10 home runs allowed. Atlanta counters with Martin Perez, who is 6-5 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, 77.0 innings pitched, 59 hits allowed, 61 strikeouts, 30 walks, and nine home runs allowed. Both starters bring respectable run-prevention numbers into this matchup, with New York getting more strikeout production from its starter and Atlanta getting a lower ERA from its side.
New York Looks for a Road Response
New York enters this matchup at 36-52 overall and 17-28 away from home. The Mets recently lost to Atlanta, lost to Toronto, won over Toronto, lost again to Toronto, and lost to Philadelphia across their last five games. That stretch gives New York one win in its last five contests.
The Mets come in batting .230 with 349 runs, 677 hits, 99 home runs, a .298 on-base percentage, and a .375 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, 311 walks, 804 strikeouts, and a .233 opponent batting average.
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The clearest strength for New York is its strikeout production on the mound, with 804 strikeouts listed in the team stats. However, the offensive numbers show a lower batting average and on-base percentage than Atlanta, which puts pressure on the pitching staff to keep the game close.
Atlanta Brings the Stronger Overall Profile
Atlanta enters at 51-35 overall and 26-16 at home. The Braves recently won over New York, lost to St. Louis, won over St. Louis, lost to St. Louis, and lost to San Francisco over their last five games. While the recent stretch has been mixed, Atlanta still comes into this matchup with the stronger overall record.
The Braves are batting .246 with 408 runs, 714 hits, 108 home runs, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff owns a 3.47 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, 282 walks, 732 strikeouts, and a .227 opponent batting average.
Atlanta’s biggest edge is balance. The Braves have the better team batting average, more runs, more hits, more home runs, better on-base percentage, better slugging percentage, lower ERA, lower WHIP, fewer walks, and lower opponent batting average compared to New York.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline
Atlanta is the pick because the provided data points more strongly toward the Braves. They have the better overall record, the better home record compared to New York’s road mark, the higher ESPN Analytics win probability, and stronger team numbers in several major offensive and pitching categories. New York has strikeout upside, but Atlanta’s broader statistical profile gives the home team the edge.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Total Pick
- Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.
I would lean under 8.5 based on the starting pitching numbers and Atlanta’s stronger pitching profile. Both listed starters have ERAs under 4.00, and Atlanta’s team ERA is 3.47 with a 1.21 WHIP. New York’s offense is batting .230 with a .298 on-base percentage, so I would expect Atlanta to have the clearer path to scoring while the overall matchup stays controlled.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 5 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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