New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 11 2026

The New York Mets visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 52-67 overall and 27-33 on the road, while Atlanta is 71-47 overall with an excellent 39-20 home record. The Mets have given the Braves trouble in the season series, winning six of the first 10 completed meetings. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks for more predictions from Tuesday's MLB schedule.

Starting Pitchers

Nolan McLean is scheduled to start for New York with an 8-7 record, 3.51 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 130.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 104 hits and 48 walks while striking out 156 and surrendering 14 home runs. Atlanta counters with Martin Perez, who enters at 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 100.1 innings. Perez has allowed only 75 hits and 11 home runs while issuing 40 walks and recording 78 strikeouts. Both starters have performed well, although Perez holds slight advantages in ERA and WHIP while McLean brings significantly greater strikeout production.

Mets Bring Improved Form to Atlanta

New York enters Tuesday at 52-67 overall and 27-33 away from home, but the Mets have been playing some of their better baseball recently. They have won four of their last five games, including an 11-1 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday. New York also scored six runs in a win over the Pirates and produced 13 and six runs in consecutive victories over Cleveland.

The Mets are batting .235 with a .306 on-base percentage and .387 slugging percentage this season. New York has scored 499 runs while collecting 943 hits and hitting 143 home runs. The pitching staff has posted a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .239 batting average.

New York's recent offensive improvement gives the Mets a chance to challenge Atlanta, especially with McLean providing a quality option on the mound. He has recorded 156 strikeouts through 130.2 innings and owns a solid 1.16 WHIP. The Mets have also won six of the first 10 meetings against Atlanta, so their poor overall record does not tell the entire story of this matchup.

Braves Continue to Thrive at Truist Park

Atlanta enters this matchup at 71-47 overall and owns one of the strongest home records in the National League at 39-20. The Braves have won three of their last five games, including a 2-1 extra-inning victory over the Yankees on Sunday. Atlanta also defeated Miami 11-3 and 4-1 during its recent five-game stretch.

The Braves hold clear statistical advantages over New York offensively. Atlanta is batting .249 with a .313 on-base percentage and .419 slugging percentage while producing 576 runs, 997 hits and 159 home runs. The Braves have also been stronger on the mound with a 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .228 batting average.

Atlanta's balance is its biggest advantage Tuesday. The Braves have outperformed the Mets in batting average, runs, home runs, slugging percentage, ERA and WHIP while also playing excellent baseball at Truist Park. Perez's 3.14 ERA gives Atlanta another advantage, although New York's recent offensive production and success in the season series prevent this from being an easy matchup.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline

Atlanta is the preferred side behind its superior season-long profile and excellent home record. The Braves are 39-20 at Truist Park compared with New York's 27-33 road mark, and Atlanta owns advantages in nearly every major team category. Perez also brings a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP into the matchup, slightly better than McLean's 3.51 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. New York has won four of five and has performed well against Atlanta this season, so there is enough resistance here to avoid automatically laying a large run line. Take the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline.

Total Pick: Under 8.5

The Under 8.5 gets the call because the starting pitching is considerably stronger than the recent offensive results might suggest. Perez has a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while McLean owns a 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 156 strikeouts through 130.2 innings. Atlanta's pitching staff has also produced a 3.60 ERA and held opponents to a .228 average. New York's recent games have featured some offensive explosions, but McLean gives the Mets a legitimate chance to limit Atlanta while Perez is positioned to contain a New York offense batting only .235 for the season. Take the Under 8.5 if that number is available.