New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Picks and Prediction for Saturday August 22, 2026

The New York Mets travel to Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois, to face the Chicago White Sox on Saturday, August 22. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 58-70 overall and 28-35 on the road, while Chicago sits at 66-61 overall and 37-25 at home. The Mets have won four of their last five completed games, while the White Sox are 2-3 over their last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Christian Scott, who enters at 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 84.2 innings. Scott has allowed 74 hits while recording 105 strikeouts against 35 walks and has surrendered only eight home runs. Chicago counters with Luis Castillo, who is 4-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 115.1 innings. Castillo has allowed 122 hits while striking out 102, walking 36 and giving up 19 home runs. The starting-pitching edge belongs to New York, particularly in ERA, strikeout rate and home-run prevention.

Mets Bring Better Recent Form Into Chicago

New York has played better baseball recently, winning four of its last five completed games. The Mets most recently beat San Diego 4-2 after taking two of three from the Padres and sweeping a pair of close games against Washington. Their 28-35 road record is still a concern, but their recent form has been noticeably stronger than their season-long record.

The Mets are batting .235 with 531 runs, 1,009 hits and 155 home runs. They carry a .307 on-base percentage and .388 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while opponents are batting .237.

The biggest reason to like New York here is the starting-pitching matchup. The Mets do not own a major statistical advantage offensively, but a starter carrying a 3.51 ERA against one with a 4.99 ERA gives them a meaningful edge in a game that otherwise looks fairly balanced.

White Sox Have Been Strong at Home

Chicago enters at 66-61 and owns a strong 37-25 home record. The White Sox have split their last five completed games at 2-3, most recently losing 2-0 to Atlanta after a 3-0 win over the Cubs. Their home performance remains one of their biggest strengths entering this matchup.

The White Sox are hitting .238 with 605 runs, 1,017 hits and 167 home runs. They own a .318 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage, both better than New York's marks. Chicago's pitching staff has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while opponents are batting .238.

Chicago has the stronger offensive profile and the better home record, which keeps this matchup close. The concern is that the White Sox are facing the stronger starter, while their own scheduled starter has allowed more hits, more home runs and carries the higher ERA.

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

New York is the preferred side if the moneyline is reasonable. The Mets are playing the better recent baseball and have the more favorable starting-pitching matchup. Scott's 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 105 strikeouts give New York a solid foundation against a Chicago team that has been good at home but inconsistent over its last five.

The White Sox have the stronger overall record and the better offensive numbers, so this is not a one-sided matchup. Still, the gap between the two starters is enough to lean toward New York, especially with the Mets having won four of their last five completed games.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Both teams own identical 4.06 staff ERAs, and Scott has been particularly effective at limiting damage. Chicago also just played a 2-0 game, while New York's last three completed games produced totals of 6, 7 and 3 runs.

Castillo's 4.99 ERA creates some risk, but New York's offense has not been explosive for most of the season. With both teams capable of getting solid pitching and neither lineup producing elite overall numbers, the under is the better lean at 8.5.

This preview was completed before play on Friday, August 21, 2026.