New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pick and Prediction September 5th, 2025
Two teams fighting for the final wild card spot go head-to-head when the Cincinnati Reds host the New York Mets on Friday at 6:40 p.m. EST in Great American Ball Park. Check out our New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds pick and prediction here!
New York is currently holding the final wild card spot with a 75-65 record, but they are ahead of the Giants by four games and the Reds by five games. New York has righted the ship after their recent skid with six wins out of their last ten, but the Giants are hot on their tail. The division might be out of reach, as last week was their best chance of catching the Phillies. As it stands, the Phillies lead the Mets by six games in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Reds are trailing the Mets by five games for the final playoff spot. They are 3-7 in their last ten and desperately need at least two wins in this series to keep their playoff hopes alive. New York is favored at a -125 money line while the total is set at an even nine runs. Can the Reds keep their hopes alive with a win at home?
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Mets fall to Tigers
New York fell to the Detroit Tigers by a score of 6-2 in their most recent contest. Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos were the only ones to contribute an RBI on the day, and the former had three hits to his name. Nobody else had more than one. Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil had two walks each, but it wasn't enough to produce a win. Clay Holmes had an ok outing with two runs surrendered in only 4.2 innings pitched, but the bullpen gave up three runs in the seventh to put the game out of reach.
The offseason moves the Mets made were clearly not enough to take this team all the way, so New York chose to add at the deadline. Gregory Soto was sent to New York in exchange for Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster. Ryan Helsley was then acquired from St. Louis for Jesus Baez, Frank Elissalt, and Nate Dohm. The Giants then traded Tyler Rogers to the Mets for Blade Tidwell, Jose Butto, and Drew Gilbert. Finally, Baltimore traded with the Mets again, this time sending Raimon Gomez, Anthony Nunez, and Chander Marsh. With the Padres headlining the teams making major moves at the deadline, the Mets needed to act. Time will tell if it was enough.
David Peterson will get the start for the Mets on Friday. So far on this year he has an 8-5 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Through 26 starts, the lefty has 136 strikeouts in 152 innings pitched. While he started off quite consistently, Peterson turned it up a notch in July with a 1.05 ERA but then had his worst month in August with a 6.68 ERA. The Mets need to have him back at his regular form for not only September, but October as well should they make it.
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Reds' pitching struggles against Blue Jays
Cincinnati fell to the Toronto Blue Jays in another offensive battle, with the final score ending up 13-9. Noelvi Marte had three RBI and two hits on the day while Jose Trevino and Matt McLain had two RBI each. McLain and Spencer Steer were the only other besides Marte with multiple hits on the day. Zack Littell had a subpar outing as the starter, giving up five runs in only 4.1 innings and the bullpen didn't do Littell and favors behind him.
The Reds made two key moves to bolster their roster before the deadline. With the first move, they acquired Zack Littell from the Rays for Brian Van Belle and Adam Serwinowski. The second move was acquiring Ke'Bryan Hayes from their divisional foe in the Pirates for Taylor Rogers, Sammy Stafura, and cash. Cincinnati is hoping these two players can push them to at least a wild card spot.
Andrew Abbott is perhaps Cincinnati's optimal choice for a starter in this game. He has a 2.65 ERA with an 8-5 in 24 starts. Through 139 innings, the lefty has 125 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP, all below his career averages. Interestingly, August has been his worst month with a 4.45 ERA, but May was his best month by far with a 0.55 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched. In his one outing against the Mets this season, Abbott went six innings and gave up only two runs on six hits while striking out five and walking one. The Reds need this game to keep their already slim playoff hopes alive.
Mets vs. Reds Pick
Spread Pick for Mets vs. Reds pick
- Reds ML
The Reds are 38-33 at home this year and they are the more desperate team with their best pitcher on the mound. If there is any time for them to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, it is this game. I like them as underdogs here, as I have more confidence in Abbott here. The Mets are 30-38 on the road this year and they have some games to "give" away. By the law of averages and a little desperation, the Reds should win this one. If they don't, I don't think they will have the same energy for the rest of the month, as their playoff hopes will be shattered. (Reds Money Line +105)
Over/Under Pick for Mets vs. Reds
- Under 9
Both starters have had poor outings in August, but they are still solid pitchers. Abbott is an All-Star and he has a 2.65 ERA overall this year. He had a great start against the Mets already this year and similar to Abbott, Peterson had a great start against the Reds in July. I suspect both starters will have a similar outing which will effectively hit the under. Both teams have hit the under in the majority of their contests this season and with a lot at stake, I suspect both teams will want to play cautiously and focus more on preventing mistakes. (under 9)
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