New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Monday June 15 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds begin a series on Monday, June 15, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Cincinnati enters the contest with a 33-36 record and is favored by ESPN Analytics' Matchup Predictor at 64.1%, while New York comes in at 31-39 with a projected 35.9% chance to win. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for additional daily baseball predictions and betting analysis.
Examining the Starting Pitching Matchup
New York has not yet announced a starting pitcher for Monday's game. Cincinnati is expected to send Chase Burns to the mound, and he has been outstanding this season. Burns enters the matchup with a 7-1 record, a 2.14 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP over 75.2 innings pitched. He has allowed only 52 hits while striking out 88 batters and walking 23. Those numbers have helped make him one of the most effective starting pitchers featured in Monday's schedule.
New York Attempts to Gain Ground
The Mets enter this contest with a 31-39 overall record and a 14-21 mark on the road. New York has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Mets recently lost to Atlanta 3-1 but also picked up victories over Atlanta by a 7-5 score and St. Louis by a 5-4 margin. Their other recent setbacks came against St. Louis by scores of 9-2 and 7-0.
Offensively, New York has posted a .228 team batting average with 280 runs scored, 532 hits, and 74 home runs. The Mets own a .292 on-base percentage and a .368 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been a stronger area, producing a 3.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .232 batting average. New York pitchers have also recorded 640 strikeouts this season.
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One of the Mets' biggest strengths has been their pitching performance. The club's 3.89 ERA is lower than Cincinnati's 4.69 mark, and New York has also held opponents to a .232 batting average. Even with some offensive inconsistency, the pitching staff has helped keep the Mets competitive throughout the season.
Cincinnati Looking to Defend Home Field
The Reds come into Monday's matchup with a 33-36 overall record and a 17-17 record at home. Cincinnati has posted a 2-3 record over its last five games. The Reds recently won over Arizona 2-1 and earned a 5-3 extra-inning victory against San Diego. However, they also recently lost to Arizona 5-2 and dropped games against San Diego by scores of 5-4 and 6-2.
The Reds are batting .229 as a team while scoring 290 runs on 530 hits. Cincinnati has displayed significant power with 87 home runs and carries a .312 on-base percentage and a .392 slugging percentage. On the mound, the Reds own a 4.69 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .251. Their pitching staff has accumulated 540 strikeouts and issued 313 walks.
The most noticeable strength for Cincinnati is its power production. The Reds have hit 87 home runs compared to New York's 74, and they also hold advantages in runs scored, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Those offensive advantages have helped offset some of the challenges presented by their pitching numbers.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
The Reds enter this matchup with the advantage of playing at home, and they are strongly favored by the matchup predictor at 64.1%. Cincinnati also owns better offensive production in several important categories, including runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Combined with the confirmed starting pitcher carrying a 7-1 record and a 2.14 ERA, Cincinnati appears to have the edge heading into Monday night's game.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick
- Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.5
I would lean toward the under if the total is posted around 8.5 runs. New York has a team ERA of 3.89 and has allowed three runs or fewer in two of its last three games. Cincinnati is also coming off a 2-1 victory and has played several competitive, lower-scoring games recently. With the stronger pitching numbers provided in this matchup, the under stands out as the preferred total play.
Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.
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