New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Tuesday June 16 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds meet on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 32-39 overall and 14-21 on the road, while Cincinnati comes in at 33-37 overall and 17-18 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. According to ESPN Analytics, the Mets have a 52.7% chance to win, while the Reds sit at 47.3%. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Set the Tone
The Mets are scheduled to start Christian Scott, who enters with a 2-0 record, a 3.10 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and 40.2 innings pitched. He has allowed 36 hits with 47 strikeouts, 19 walks, and four home runs. The Reds are expected to counter with Brady Singer, who comes in at 2-6 with a 5.61 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and 61.0 innings pitched. He has allowed 80 hits while recording 47 strikeouts, 20 walks, and 17 home runs.
New York Brings a Slight Edge Into Cincinnati
The Mets enter this matchup with a 32-39 overall record and a 14-21 road mark. New York has gone 3-2 over its last five games. The Mets recently won over Atlanta by an 8-1 score, recently lost to Atlanta 3-1, recently won over Atlanta 7-5, recently won over St. Louis 5-4, and recently lost to St. Louis 9-2.
New York is batting .230 as a team with 288 runs, 545 hits, and 76 home runs. The Mets have a .294 on-base percentage and a .371 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, they carry a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while issuing 254 walks and recording 644 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .231 against them, and the team is 17-22 in night games.
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The biggest strength for New York in this matchup is its pitching profile compared with Cincinnati. The Mets have the better team ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeout total. That gives them a foundation to lean on, especially against a Cincinnati team that has allowed more traffic on the bases from its own pitching staff.
Cincinnati Looks for a Home Response
The Reds come into this game with a 33-37 overall record and a 17-18 mark at home. Cincinnati has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Reds recently lost to Arizona 5-3, recently won over Arizona 2-1, recently lost to Arizona 5-2, recently lost to San Diego 5-4, and recently won over San Diego 5-3 in 11 innings.
Cincinnati is batting .229 as a team with 293 runs, 538 hits, and 89 home runs. The Reds own a .312 on-base percentage and a .393 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has a 4.68 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP with 318 walks and 547 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .250 against Cincinnati, and the Reds are 18-21 in night games.
Cincinnati’s clearest strength is power. The Reds have hit 89 home runs, which is more than New York’s 76. They also have the better on-base percentage and slugging percentage. However, the concern is the pitching side, where Cincinnati has allowed a higher opponent batting average and carries the higher ERA and WHIP.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
The Mets are the pick here because they have a slight edge in the matchup predictor and the stronger pitching numbers overall. New York enters with a 52.7% win probability, and the starting pitching comparison also favors the road team based on ERA, WHIP, hits allowed, and home runs allowed. Cincinnati does bring more home run power, but the Reds have the higher team ERA and WHIP, which makes New York the side I trust more in this matchup.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
I lean toward the over if the total is set at 8.5. Cincinnati has shown more power with 89 home runs, while New York has scored 288 runs and recently had multiple wins with at least five runs. The Reds have also allowed a 4.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a team, while the listed Cincinnati starter has allowed 80 hits and 17 home runs. With both teams having paths to offense, I would look to the over at that number.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 6 – Cincinnati Reds 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.
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