New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Wednesday June 17 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds meet on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 12:40 PM ET, and the game will be covered on MLB.TV. New York enters the matchup at 32-40 overall and 14-22 on the road, while Cincinnati comes in at 34-37 overall and 18-18 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more analysis and predictions.
Starting Pitchers Set the Tone in Cincinnati
The Mets are expected to start Nolan McLean, who enters with a 3-4 record, a 4.01 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 76.1 innings pitched, 56 hits allowed, 88 strikeouts, 31 walks, and eight home runs allowed. The Reds are expected to counter with Nick Lodolo, who comes in at 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, 38.0 innings pitched, 40 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts, 15 walks, and eight home runs allowed. Based strictly on the provided numbers, New York has the stronger starting pitching profile entering this matchup, with advantages in ERA, WHIP, innings, hits allowed, and strikeout production.
Mets Looking to Respond After a Rough Road Result
New York enters this game with a 32-40 overall record and a 14-22 mark away from home. The Mets have gone 3-2 over their last five games, recently winning over Atlanta twice and St. Louis while recently losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta. Their most recent game was a 12-0 loss at Cincinnati, so this matchup gives New York an immediate chance to respond at the same ballpark.
The Mets are hitting .229 as a team with 288 runs, 551 hits, 76 home runs, a .295 on-base percentage, and a .369 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York owns a 3.96 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP, 259 walks, 650 strikeouts, and a .231 opponent batting average. The Mets also have a 15-17 day-game record.
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The clearest strength for New York is its pitching profile. The Mets have the better team ERA, WHIP, strikeout total, and opponent batting average compared to Cincinnati. Even with the lopsided result in the previous meeting, the season-long pitching numbers give New York a path to keeping this game more manageable.
Reds Trying to Build on a Big Win
Cincinnati comes into this game with a 34-37 overall record and an even 18-18 record at home. The Reds have gone 2-3 across their last five games, recently winning over New York and Arizona while recently losing to Arizona twice and San Diego. Cincinnati’s most recent result was a dominant 12-0 win over New York, which gives the Reds some momentum heading into this afternoon matchup.
The Reds are hitting .229 as a team with 305 runs, 547 hits, 92 home runs, a .313 on-base percentage, and a .396 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP, 324 walks, 558 strikeouts, and a .249 opponent batting average. Cincinnati has also posted a 15-16 record in day games.
Cincinnati’s biggest statistical edge is power. The Reds have hit 92 home runs compared to 76 for New York, and they also hold advantages in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. If Cincinnati is going to control this game again, that offensive production will likely need to carry the matchup.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
New York is coming off a poor result against Cincinnati, but the Mets still enter with the stronger pitching numbers and the better matchup predictor percentage at 52.3%. The starting pitching comparison also leans toward New York based on ERA and WHIP. Cincinnati has the stronger power numbers, but the Mets’ overall pitching profile gives them the slight edge in this matchup.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
I would take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Cincinnati just scored 12 runs in the previous meeting, and the Reds have the better power numbers with 92 home runs and a .396 slugging percentage. New York also has enough recent scoring to contribute, with wins of 8-1, 7-5, and 5-4 within its last five games. Based only on the provided results and team stats, I would lean toward another game with enough offense to get over that number.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 6 – Cincinnati Reds 5
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.
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