New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 4 2026
The New York Mets will visit the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The opening pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage available through SNY, Guardians.TV, and WKYC 3. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Readers searching for additional analysis across Tuesday’s schedule can check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Sean Manaea is expected to start for New York with a 2-5 record, a 4.42 ERA, and 88 strikeouts this season. The left-hander will be trying to steady a Mets club that has struggled to turn competitive pitching performances into victories. Cleveland is expected to counter with Joey Cantillo, who enters at 8-6 with a 3.88 ERA and 124 strikeouts. Cantillo owns the stronger record, lower ERA, and higher strikeout total entering this matchup between left-handed starters.
New York Begins Its Road Trip in an Offensive Slump
The Mets enter Tuesday with a 47-66 overall record and a 22-32 mark away from home. New York went 1-4 over its final five games before Monday, with its only victory coming against Miami. The Mets then dropped three straight games against Miami, losing 5-2, 6-2, and 2-0. They scored only 8 combined runs across those five contests and were held to two runs or fewer four times.
New York is batting .233 as a team with 457 runs, 880 hits, and 131 home runs. The Mets have produced a .303 on-base percentage and a .380 slugging percentage. Their home-run total is considerably better than Cleveland’s, but that power has not created consistent scoring. New York’s 457 runs rank near the bottom of the league, while its low on-base percentage has made it difficult to produce sustained rallies.
The primary concern is an offence that has become increasingly ineffective. The Mets batted only .196 across their last five games and managed just two home runs during that stretch. They also enter Tuesday on a three-game losing streak after being shut out in their final game before Monday. Manaea will need to limit Cleveland early because New York has not recently demonstrated an ability to recover from a significant deficit.
Cleveland Turns to Its Pitching at Progressive Field
Cleveland comes into the series opener at 57-56 overall and 28-28 at home. The Guardians went 2-3 across their final five games before Monday. They earned a road victory over Cincinnati by a score of 6-1, then lost the first two games of their home series against Arizona. Cleveland recovered Sunday with a 5-0 victory, receiving another dominant pitching performance to avoid a three-game sweep.
The Guardians are batting .231 with 446 runs, 862 hits, and 109 home runs. Cleveland has recorded a .310 on-base percentage and a .370 slugging percentage. The Guardians trail the Mets in runs, hits, home runs, and slugging percentage, but they own the slightly better on-base percentage. Cleveland’s offensive numbers are modest, making its pitching staff especially important in close games.
Cantillo gives the Guardians a meaningful advantage in the starting matchup. His 3.88 ERA is more than half a run lower than Manaea’s mark, and he has recorded 36 more strikeouts. Cleveland also enters with the better overall record and some positive momentum after Sunday’s shutout victory. The Guardians may not possess an explosive offensive profile, but they should not need a large scoring output if Cantillo can take advantage of New York’s prolonged struggles at the plate.
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction
Pick:
- Cleveland Guardians -1.5
I am taking Cleveland on the run line because the Guardians have the stronger starting pitcher and face a New York lineup that scored two runs or fewer in four of its last five games. Cantillo enters with the better ERA, record, and strikeout total, while Cleveland has an opportunity to build upon Sunday’s 5-0 win. The Guardians’ limited offence makes laying 1.5 runs somewhat risky, so I would want plus money at the standard run line. Still, New York’s three-game losing streak and recent inability to score make Cleveland the more trustworthy side.
Pick:
- Under 8.5
I am leaning under if the total is set at 8.5 runs. The Mets scored only 11 runs across their last five games and were shut out Sunday, while Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in batting average, runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. Cantillo has a 3.88 ERA with 124 strikeouts, and Manaea remains capable of giving New York competitive innings despite his 2-5 record. Neither offence has produced enough consistently to justify expecting a high-scoring game. I would play Under 8.5, while Under 7.5 would provide too little margin for a late bullpen mistake.
This game preview was written before game play on Monday.