New York Mets vs. Detroit Tigers Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, September 3, 2025
Interleague action wraps up in Detroit with some day ball on Wednesday, so grab our Mets vs. Tigers predictions early. New York (75-64, 2nd in N.L. East) will have RHP Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA) on the hill in the matinee. Detroit (80-59, 1st in A.L. Central) will look to RHP Casey Mize (12-5, 3.95 ERA) to get the game rolling with a 1:10 EST first pitch from Comerica Park. Don’t go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Tuesday’s games.)
Fading in East, Mets try holding on in Wild Card race
The Mets were able to take the series opener against Detroit, 10-8, on Monday, erasing a two-game losing streak and the stench of losing three-of-four to Miami. They were six back in the East heading into Tuesday and had a four-game lead on the last Wild Card spot in the National League. Through 138 games, New York’s pitching staff had a 3.89 team ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 1,186 strikeouts as opponents had hit .243 against them. Over the last 30 days, the staff had a 4.87 ERA while also allowing 18 unearned runs in that stretch. The starting rotation has a 46-32 record with 3.88 ERA while the bullpen has provided 37 saves to go with a 3.94 ERA over 534 innings.
New York’s offense was sixth in the National League with a .250 batting average and tied for fifth with 660 runs. They are third in the league with 189 home runs and 120 stole bases. Juan Soto is tied for third in the N.L. with 36 home runs, having hit four over his last four games. The Mets’ outfielder leads the league with 113 walks, and his 90 RBIs are 12th most. Pete Alonso sits fifth in the league with 31 home runs and second with 110 RBIs. Over his last 20 games, the first baseman hit .281 with five homers, 17 RBIS and 14 runs.
Starter spotlight
- Clay Holmes is making his 28th start of the year and the Mets are 16-11 when he pitches.
- He did not earn a decision in his most recent outing after allowing four runs, two of them earned, five hits and a walk over five innings versus Miami.
- The left-hander went 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA over five starts in August.
- The Mets’ starter has allowed 56 walks and 12 home runs this season and teams are hitting .244 against him.
- Holmes has faced Detroit 13 times in his career, all in relief, and he has a 3.45 ERA and four saves against them.
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Tigers crashing into the stretch run
Coming off a five-game winning streak, the Tigers have gone 2-6 over their last eight games, including Monday night’s loss in the series opener. Prior to Tuesday’s action, they maintained a nine-game lead over the A.L. Central and they had a 0.5 game lead over Toronto for the best record in the American League. Pitching has been getting battered around, allowing 23 runs over their last seven games. On the year, Detroit’s staff has a 3.84 team ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 1,182 strikeouts and a .239 opponents' batting average. Starting pitching had a 49-40 record with a 3.81 ERA and Tigers’ relievers had locked down 36 saves and 31 wins to go with a 3.95 ERA in 521.1 innings of work.
The Tigers’ offense ranked sixth in the A.L. with a .250 batting average and their 669 runs through 139 games were the fourth most. They lead the league with 33 triples and were fifth with 176 home runs. Riley Greene sits fourth in the American League with 31 home runs and second with 101 RBIs. The outfielder had a .389 average with three homers, seven RBIs and six runs over his last five games. Spencer Torkelson is second on the club with 28 home runs but hit just two over his last 19 games, a stretch in which he hit .179.
Starter spotlight
- The Tigers are 16-7 this season when Casey Mize has been their starting pitcher.
- In his last start, the right-hander picked up his first loss since Jul 22nd after allowing five runs, seven hits and two walks over 3.1 innings against the Athletics.
- The Tigers’ hurler went 3-1 in August with a 5.81 ERA over five starts.
- Opponents are hitting .268 against him with 17 home runs and 32 walks.
- Mize has faced the Mets once in his career and did not earn a decision after allowing three runs over 4.1 innings.
Tigers -102 (5 units)
The Mets got the jump on the Tigers by taking the opener in a slugfest. This matchup should go the other way, since the starting pitchers have both been excellent this season. However, the upper hand goes to Mize, who has been nearly unbeatable at home this season, going 7-1 at Comerica in 11 starts this season. As strong as Holmes has been all season, he’s just 6-4 in 13 road starts and teams are hitting .272 against him. Detroit is at the point where they need to snap out of it if they want to take the top spot in the A.L. They’ve been lackadaisical over the last week or so, but they need to prove to themselves that they can handle other postseason contenders. The Tigers are 44-26 at Comerica Park this season, while New York has gone 29-37 away from their home confines. Prior to Tuesday night’s game, Detroit was 6-4 in their last ten games against the Mets.
Take the Tigers.
Under 8.5 (4 units)
These two teams brought out the lumber on Monday night, combining for 18 runs. However, they may have used up a good amount of their allotment for the series as the finale is shaping up to be a lower-scoring affair, thanks for a strong starting pitching matchup. Holmes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of their last seven starts. He has been extremely consistent this season and even on the road, he tends to lock it down. Mize has lacked that consistency this season, but in coming off of a start in which he allowed five earned runs, I fully expect him to check back in with a strong outing. The Tigers' offense averaged 3.8 runs over their last five games. The Mets' offense has been hitting the ball well of late, but with the afternoon game coming after a night game, especially against Mize, I don’t expect a lot out of their offense either. The under is 3-2 in the last five meetings between the clubs.
Take the under.
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