New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Monday September 7 2026

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins open a three-game NL East series Monday afternoon at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM ET on September 7 with MLB.TV carrying the game. New York enters at 64-78 overall and 31-38 on the road, while Miami is 71-72 overall and 42-29 at home. The Marlins have won six of the first 10 meetings between the teams this season and have been considerably stronger at home than the Mets have been on the road. ESPN Analytics gives Miami a 62.2% chance of winning compared with 37.8% for New York. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your Monday wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Jonah Tong, who enters at 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 10 innings. Tong has allowed eight hits and seven walks while striking out seven and surrendering one home run. Miami counters with Eury Perez, who is 7-10 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 135.1 innings. Perez has allowed 101 hits and 59 walks while recording 145 strikeouts and giving up 17 home runs. The ERA numbers are similar, but Miami has a considerable advantage in experience and WHIP. New York's starter has worked only 10 innings, making his early 3.60 ERA difficult to weigh as heavily as Miami's larger body of work.

New York Has Been Too Inconsistent

New York enters Monday at 64-78 overall and 31-38 away from home. The Mets have split their last four games and gone 3-2 across their last five, although they are coming off a 9-5 loss at home. New York scored 30 runs during those five games, including a pair of 10-run performances, showing that the offense is capable of breaking through. Consistency remains the issue for a club sitting 20 games behind first place in the NL East and 6.5 games behind Miami entering this series.

The Mets are batting .236 with 1,125 hits, 592 runs and 174 home runs while carrying a .306 on-base percentage and .390 slugging percentage. New York has hit 28 more home runs than Miami, giving the Mets the more dangerous home-run profile, but Miami holds advantages in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. New York's .306 on-base percentage is particularly concerning because it limits the number of opportunities the offense creates when the power is not producing.

New York's pitching staff enters with a 4.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while opponents are batting .239. Those aren't disastrous numbers, but Miami is better in all three categories with a 3.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .233 opponent batting average. The Mets also enter this matchup with uncertainty surrounding a starter who has pitched only 10 innings this season. New York has enough power to threaten Miami, but the combination of its pitching disadvantage and 31-38 road record makes the Mets difficult to trust.

Miami Looks to End Its Losing Streak at Home

Miami enters Monday at 71-72 overall and has been significantly better at loanDepot park, where the Marlins are 42-29. They have dropped three consecutive games entering Sunday, including back-to-back home losses, but had won their previous two contests before the skid began. Miami has also controlled the season series against New York, winning six of the first 10 meetings. Four of those six victories came by at least three runs, including a pair of shutouts, giving the Marlins another positive matchup indicator heading into the series opener.

The Marlins are batting .247 with 1,172 hits, 621 runs and 146 home runs while posting a .325 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. New York owns the advantage in home runs, but Miami has the more complete offensive profile. The Marlins lead the Mets by 11 points in batting average, 29 runs, 47 hits, 19 points in on-base percentage and eight points in slugging percentage. Miami has also scored at least five runs in three of its last five games, although the offense has not been enough to overcome its recent run-prevention problems.

Miami's pitching staff provides another modest advantage with a 3.99 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while holding opponents to a .233 batting average. More importantly for Monday, the Marlins enter with the more established starting option and the stronger WHIP in the pitching matchup. Miami's starter has logged 135.1 innings with a 1.18 WHIP, while New York's scheduled starter has only 10 innings and a 1.50 WHIP. Combined with Miami's 42-29 home record and 6-4 advantage in the season series, the Marlins have several meaningful edges.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side in Monday's series opener. The Marlins have the better overall record, a strong 42-29 home mark and a 6-4 advantage over New York in the season series. Miami also holds advantages in batting average, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA and WHIP. The starting matchup adds another reason to favor the home team, particularly because New York's scheduled starter has only 10 innings of major-league work represented in the supplied statistics. ESPN Analytics gives Miami a substantial 62.2% win probability, and the overall statistical profile supports the Marlins moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

Over 8.5 is the preferred target number. New York's last five games have produced combined totals of 14, 16, 14, eight and five runs, with three of those contests comfortably reaching double digits. Miami's last five have finished with 11, seven, 10, 15 and nine combined runs, meaning four reached at least nine. New York's starter has also worked only 10 innings while carrying a 1.50 WHIP, adding uncertainty to the early innings. Miami has scored at least five runs in three of its last five games, while New York has reached double digits twice over the same span. With both offenses showing recent scoring upside, Over 8.5 is the stronger total position.

Final Picks: Miami Marlins Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.