New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 9 2026

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins continue their National League East series at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 66-78 overall and 32-38 on the road, while Miami is 72-73 overall with a strong 43-30 record at home. The Mets won the opening game of the series 9-4 and have won four of their last five games, while Miami has dropped four of five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Robert Stock, who enters at 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across 26.1 innings. He has allowed 33 hits and 13 walks while recording 25 strikeouts and surrendering two home runs. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who is 6-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 108.0 innings. He has allowed 109 hits and 29 walks while striking out 74 and surrendering 12 home runs. Miami owns the clear statistical advantage in the starting matchup, particularly in ERA, WHIP and workload.

New York Arrives With a Hot Offense

The Mets enter Wednesday at 66-78 overall and 32-38 away from home. Despite the losing season record, New York has found some momentum by winning four of its last five games. The Mets opened this series with a 9-4 victory in Miami after taking two of three from San Francisco. Their four recent victories have come by scores of 9-4, 4-2, 10-6 and 10-4.

New York is batting .237 with 605 runs, 1,148 hits and 176 home runs. The Mets have produced a .307 on-base percentage and .392 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York owns a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average. The staff has issued 504 walks and recorded 1,288 strikeouts.

The recent offensive production is the biggest reason to take New York seriously despite its overall record. The Mets have scored at least nine runs in three of their last five games and have produced 38 runs over that five-game span. Their 176 home runs also give them considerably more season-long power than Miami. The concern is a starting pitching matchup that favors the home team, especially given New York's 5.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP from its scheduled starter.

Miami Looks to Answer at Home

Miami enters at 72-73 overall and has played its best baseball at loanDepot park, where the Marlins are 43-30. That strong home record is important because their recent results have gone in the opposite direction. Miami has lost four of its last five, including a 9-4 defeat against New York in the opening game of this series. The Marlins' only victory during that stretch was a 10-3 win over the Cubs.

The Marlins are batting .247 with 635 runs, 1,189 hits and 149 home runs. Miami owns a .326 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. Miami has issued 495 walks and recorded 1,173 strikeouts.

Miami owns several meaningful statistical advantages in this matchup. The Marlins have the better batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage while scoring 30 more runs than New York. They also have the better team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Most importantly for Wednesday, Miami combines its 43-30 home record with a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side despite New York's recent offensive surge. The Marlins have gone 43-30 at home and own advantages over the Mets in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. The biggest separator is the starting pitching matchup. Miami's scheduled starter enters with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, compared with a 5.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for New York's starter. The Mets are playing well enough to make this dangerous, but the broader statistical profile favors the Miami Marlins moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

The recent scoring patterns make the Over 8.5 attractive if the total is set at 8.5 or lower. New York has scored 38 runs across its last five games, including double-digit outputs twice and nine runs against Miami in the series opener. Four of the Mets' last five games have produced at least six combined runs, with three reaching 13 or more. Four of Miami's last five have also reached at least nine combined runs. Add a New York starter carrying a 5.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, and there is enough potential offense to support another higher-scoring game. Take the Over if the total is set at 8.5 or lower.

Final Picks: Miami Marlins Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Tuesday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.