New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks - September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC National League East MLB action on Sunday afternoon, we have a New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction ready to go. The Mets are locked in a battle for the final wildcard slot in the National League, while Miami is just playing out the string, as they have been out of the playoff picture for a while. Read on to see our Mets vs Marlins prediction.
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Mets Need To Win This One
The Mets kept pace in the NL Wild Card race with a 5–0 win over Miami on Saturday, improving to 84–77 and remaining tied with Cincinnati for the final playoff spot. Clay Holmes got the start and delivered six dominant innings, allowing just one hit, walking three, and striking out two. He earned his 12th win of the season and set the tone for a one-hit shutout. Brooks Raley, Tyler Rogers, and Edwin Díaz each followed with a scoreless frame, combining for three strikeouts and zero baserunners. Miami never advanced a runner past second base.
Pete Alonso led the offense with a 2-for-4 day, including a solo home run in the third — his 38th of the season. Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil each added RBI singles, and the Mets capitalized on four walks and one stolen base to keep pressure on Miami’s defense. Brandon Nimmo went 1-for-4 with a walk, while the team finished 3-for-7 with runners in scoring position. The win evened the season series at 6–6 and sets up a win-or-go-home finale with postseason implications on the line.
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Sean Manaea (7–6, 3.88 ERA) will start Sunday’s finale, looking to extend the Mets’ season. He’s posted a 2.95 ERA over his last four outings and will face a Marlins lineup that’s struggled to generate offense. With the bullpen rested and the core bats producing, New York is positioned to fight to the final pitch.
Miami Is Looking To Play Spoiler
The Marlins fell to 78–83 after Saturday’s 5–0 loss to the Mets, dropping their fourth straight and continuing a rough finish to the season. Eury Pérez took the loss, allowing three earned runs over 5.1 innings despite striking out 11. He gave up just three hits, including a solo homer to Pete Alonso, but walked three and was charged with his sixth loss. The bullpen combined for 3.2 innings, with Bachar, Petersen, Simpson, and Soriano allowing two more runs on five hits and three walks.
Offensively, Miami managed just one hit — a single by Xavier Edwards — and drew three walks while striking out five times. They finished 0-for-1 with runners in scoring position and never advanced a runner past second base. Jakob Marsee, Connor Norby, Troy Johnston, and Heriberto Hernández were all held hitless, while Hernández reached twice via walk. The lineup failed to generate any momentum and has now dropped 12 of its last 15 games.
Edward Cabrera (5–9, 5.08 ERA) will start Sunday’s finale, looking to end the season on a high note. Cabrera has electric stuff but continues to battle control issues, with 71 walks in 118 innings. He’ll face a Mets team fighting for a playoff spot, and for Miami, the finale offers a chance to salvage a split in the season series and finish with a competitive effort heading into 2026.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pick
Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Pick
- New York (5 Units)
The Mets enter Sunday’s finale with everything on the line — tied for the final NL Wild Card spot and riding the momentum of Saturday’s one-hit shutout. Sean Manaea gets the ball, and he’s been sharp down the stretch, posting a 2.95 ERA over his last four outings. He’ll face a Marlins lineup that’s struggled to produce, striking out five times and managing just one hit in Game 161. With the bullpen fully rested and Clay Holmes, Edwin Díaz, and Tyler Rogers all available, New York has the arms to close out a must-win game.
Offensively, the Mets are executing in key spots. Pete Alonso is locked in, coming off a 2-for-4 performance with his 38th homer, and the supporting cast — Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo — continues to generate traffic and capitalize on mistakes. Miami starter Edward Cabrera has electric stuff but remains erratic, with 71 walks in 118 innings. In a high-leverage spot, that volatility favors New York’s patient approach. With playoff urgency, a rested bullpen, and a lineup that’s delivering, the Mets are well-positioned to finish the job.
Mets vs Marlins Over/Under Pick
- Under (4 Units)
With playoff pressure mounting and both bullpens rested, the Under sets up well in Sunday’s finale. Sean Manaea has been sharp in September and faces a Marlins lineup that managed just one hit and failed to push a runner past second base in Game 161. On the other side, Edward Cabrera’s volatility is real, but his swing-and-miss stuff is capable of limiting damage — especially against a Mets offense that struck out 15 times on Saturday. With cooler bats, high-leverage pitching, and tight game flow expected, this matchup profiles as a low-scoring grind with postseason tension keeping runs at a premium.
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