New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 20, 2026
The New York Mets will visit the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Monday, July 20, 2026, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. MLB.TV will provide coverage of the matchup. New York enters with a 41-58 record, while Milwaukee stands at 61-37. ESPN Analytics gives the Brewers a 68.8% chance of winning compared with 31.2% for the Mets. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Freddy Peralta is scheduled to start for New York, while Milwaukee’s starter is listed as Undecided. Peralta enters with a 5-8 record, a 4.66 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP across 104.1 innings. He has allowed 106 hits and 15 home runs while recording 104 strikeouts against 44 walks. His individual ERA and WHIP are both higher than New York’s team marks of 4.26 and 1.31.
New York Attempts to Break Through on the Road
New York enters Monday’s matchup with a 41-58 overall record and a 20-30 record away from home. The Mets have lost four of their last five games and recently suffered a 6-1 road defeat against Philadelphia. New York earned a 4-1 victory over the same opponent in the previous meeting. The Mets also recently lost three consecutive home games against Boston by scores of 3-2 in 10 innings, 4-0, and 6-2.
The Mets are batting .232 with 403 runs, 771 hits, and 116 home runs. New York owns a .302 on-base percentage and a .380 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has produced a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 357 walks and recording 904 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .238 against the Mets. New York has also posted a 19-23 record in day games.
New York’s most noticeable weakness is its recent offensive production. The Mets have scored only nine runs across their last five games and have been held to two runs or fewer in four of those contests. Their season numbers also trail Milwaukee in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. New York has hit 26 more home runs than the Brewers, but Milwaukee has scored 96 more runs over the course of the season.
Milwaukee Looks to Build on Consecutive Wins
Milwaukee comes into this contest with a 61-37 overall record and an impressive 31-18 record at American Family Field. The Brewers have gone 2-3 over their last five games, but both victories came in their two most recent contests. Milwaukee recently defeated Miami 8-6 after earning a 2-1 victory in 10 innings. Before those wins, the Brewers suffered three consecutive road losses against Pittsburgh by scores of 14-5, 3-2, and 7-6.
The Brewers are batting .254 with 499 runs, 848 hits, and 90 home runs. Milwaukee has recorded a .338 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 3.48 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP while issuing 311 walks and collecting 950 strikeouts. Opponents are batting only .219 against the Brewers. Milwaukee has also produced a 22-15 record in day games.
Milwaukee’s primary strength is the balance displayed by its offensive and pitching statistics. The Brewers have scored more runs than New York despite hitting fewer home runs, and they own advantages in batting average, hits, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Milwaukee also has a team ERA that is 0.78 lower, a WHIP that is 0.15 lower, and an opponent batting average that is 19 points lower. The Brewers have recorded 46 more strikeouts while issuing 46 fewer walks.
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Milwaukee is my moneyline selection for Monday’s game. The Brewers have the much stronger overall and home records, while New York is 17 games below .500 overall and 10 games below .500 on the road. Milwaukee also holds advantages in nearly every supplied offensive and pitching category. The Mets have lost four of their last five and have scored only nine runs during that span. ESPN Analytics gives the Brewers a 68.8% probability of winning, making Milwaukee the preferred side at American Family Field.
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I am backing the under because all five of New York’s most recent games have finished with eight combined runs or fewer. The Mets have scored two runs or fewer in four of those games, while Milwaukee enters with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .219 opponent batting average. Two of the Brewers’ last four games also produced five combined runs or fewer. Milwaukee’s pitching advantage and New York’s recent scoring results support a lower-scoring prediction.
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 5 – New York Mets 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.