New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The New York Mets travel to face the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. New York enters the contest with a 42-58 record, while Milwaukee owns a 62-37 mark. The matchup predictor gives the Brewers a 62.1% chance to win compared with 37.9% for the Mets. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before Tuesday’s first pitch.

Starting Pitchers for New York and Milwaukee

Zac Thornton is scheduled to start for New York against Brandon Sproat for Milwaukee. Thornton enters with a 0-1 record, a 2.60 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP through 17.1 innings. He has allowed 11 hits and one home run while recording 15 strikeouts against five walks. Sproat owns a 3-4 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP across 82 innings. He has surrendered 73 hits and 15 home runs while collecting 87 strikeouts and issuing 39 walks. New York’s starter holds the better ERA and WHIP, while Milwaukee’s starter has worked considerably more innings and recorded far more strikeouts.

New York Searches for Greater Consistency on the Road

The Mets enter Tuesday’s matchup with a 42-58 overall record and a 21-30 record away from home. New York recently earned victories of 6-1 and 4-1 over Philadelphia while losing the other meeting 6-1. Before those games, the Mets recently suffered losses of 3-2 in 10 innings and 4-0 against Boston. New York has won two of its last five games and has scored four runs or fewer in four of those contests.

New York is batting .234 as a team with 409 runs, 785 hits, and 117 home runs. The Mets have produced a .304 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 360 walks and recording 918 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have batted .237 against New York. The Mets also hold a 22-35 record in night games.

The Mets’ most identifiable strength in this matchup is their home-run production. New York has hit 117 home runs compared with Milwaukee’s 91, giving the visitors a 26-home-run advantage. The Mets have also issued 360 walks offensively, which is 48 more than the Brewers. However, New York trails Milwaukee in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average.

Milwaukee Brings an Impressive Home Record Into the Opener

The Brewers come into this game with a 62-37 overall record and a 32-18 record at American Family Field. Milwaukee recently earned three consecutive victories over Miami by scores of 3-1, 8-6, and 2-1 in 10 innings. Before those wins, the Brewers recently lost twice to Pittsburgh by scores of 14-5 and 3-2. Milwaukee has won three of its last five games and enters this matchup with wins in each of its three most recent contests.

Milwaukee owns a .253 team batting average with 502 runs, 852 hits, and 91 home runs. The Brewers have generated a .337 on-base percentage and a .396 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has registered a 3.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP with 312 walks and 960 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .219 against Milwaukee. The Brewers have also compiled a strong 39-22 record in night games.

Milwaukee’s central strength is its combination of reaching base and preventing opponents from doing the same. The Brewers have a .337 on-base percentage and a 1.16 pitching WHIP, while New York stands at .304 and 1.31 in those categories. Milwaukee has scored 93 more runs and owns a team ERA that is 0.78 lower. Its pitchers have also recorded 42 more strikeouts while issuing 48 fewer walks than the Mets.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

Milwaukee is the selection based on its superior overall record, home performance, and balanced team statistics. The Brewers have won 20 more games than the Mets and are 14 games above .500 at home, while New York is nine games below .500 on the road. Milwaukee also holds advantages in most of the supplied offensive and pitching categories. The matchup predictor gives the Brewers a 62.1% chance of winning, supporting the home team despite New York’s starting-pitching advantage.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Total Pick

• Pick: Under

I would take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Milwaukee has a 3.45 team ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .219 opponent batting average. New York’s scheduled starter enters with a 2.60 ERA and has surrendered only 11 hits through 17.1 innings. Four of the Mets’ last five games finished with seven or fewer combined runs, while two of Milwaukee’s three recent victories had final totals of four runs or fewer. Those figures support a lower-scoring projection.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – New York Mets 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.