New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The New York Mets visit the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV and two additional options. New York enters with a 42-59 overall record and a 21-31 road mark, while Milwaukee is 63-37 overall and 33-18 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Brewers a 70.1% chance of winning, compared with 29.9% for the Mets. The supplied game information lists a temperature of 73 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making any wagers on Wednesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Bring Strong Numbers into Milwaukee

Christian Scott is scheduled to start for New York and enters with a 3-1 record, a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. The right-hander has completed 59.2 innings, allowing 47 hits, 26 walks, and seven home runs while recording 72 strikeouts. Logan Henderson gets the start for Milwaukee. The right-hander is also 3-1 and owns a 2.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP across 33.1 innings. He has surrendered 24 hits, seven walks, and three home runs while collecting 38 strikeouts.

New York Needs Its Pitching to Change the Series

New York enters Wednesday with a 42-59 overall record and has struggled to a 21-31 record away from home. The Mets are 2-3 across their last five games after recently losing to Milwaukee 8-3. New York previously defeated Philadelphia by scores of 6-1 and 4-1 but lost another meeting with Philadelphia 6-1. Its other recent defeat was a 3-2 result in 10 innings against Boston. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five contests.

The Mets are batting .233 with 791 hits, 412 runs, and 117 home runs. They have produced a .303 on-base percentage and a .380 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff owns a 4.27 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 363 walks and recording 926 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .238 against the Mets. New York has gone 20-23 in day games this season.

New York’s most apparent offensive advantage is its power production, as the Mets have hit 23 more home runs than Milwaukee. Their pitching staff has also issued 47 more walks but trails the Brewers by only 49 strikeouts. The scheduled starter gives New York a chance to remain competitive, carrying a slightly lower ERA than Milwaukee’s probable pitcher while recording 72 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. However, the Mets trail Milwaukee in every other supplied offensive category and have the higher team ERA, WHIP, and opposing batting average.

Milwaukee Pursues a Fifth Consecutive Victory

Milwaukee enters Wednesday with an impressive 63-37 overall record and a 33-18 mark at American Family Field. The Brewers have won four consecutive games after recently defeating New York 8-3. Milwaukee swept its previous three games against Miami by scores of 3-1, 8-6, and 2-1 in 10 innings. Its only loss across the last five contests was a 14-5 road defeat against Pittsburgh. The Brewers have held their opponent to three runs or fewer during each game of their current winning streak.

The Brewers are batting .253 with 862 hits, 510 runs, and 94 home runs. Milwaukee owns a .337 on-base percentage and a .399 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has registered a 3.44 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP while issuing 316 walks and collecting 975 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have managed only a .218 batting average against Milwaukee. The Brewers have also compiled a 23-15 record in day games.

Milwaukee brings advantages in both offensive consistency and overall pitching performance. The Brewers have the higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while collecting 71 more hits and scoring 98 more runs than New York. Their staff ERA is 0.83 lower, and their WHIP is better by 0.15. Milwaukee has also issued fewer walks, recorded more strikeouts, and held opposing hitters to an average that is 20 points lower. The Brewers’ combination of a strong home record and four-game winning streak makes them difficult to oppose in this matchup.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

I am backing Milwaukee to extend its winning streak at home. The Brewers own the much better overall and home records, and they recently defeated the Mets 8-3. Milwaukee leads New York in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while also holding advantages in team ERA, WHIP, walks, strikeouts, and opposing batting average. The starting matchup is competitive, but Milwaukee’s scheduled starter owns an excellent 0.93 WHIP. ESPN Analytics gives the Brewers a commanding 70.1% probability, and their more complete statistical profile makes Milwaukee the preferred side.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Total Pick

• Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.

I would take the under at 8.5 because both scheduled starters enter with ERAs below 3.00. New York’s probable pitcher has a 2.87 ERA and has allowed only seven home runs in 59.2 innings, while Milwaukee’s starter owns a 2.97 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and has surrendered only three home runs. The Brewers have held opponents to three runs or fewer in four consecutive games, and the Mets have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five. Those numbers support a more controlled contest despite the recent meeting producing 11 runs.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 5 – New York Mets 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.