New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Friday September 11 2026

The New York Mets cross town to face the New York Yankees on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. The Mets enter at 68-78 overall and 34-38 on the road, while the Yankees are 83-62 overall and 39-31 at home. The Mets have won four straight games and currently lead the season series 2-1, while the Yankees have won two straight and three of their last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

The Mets are scheduled to start Nolan McLean, who enters at 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 161.2 innings. He has allowed 120 hits and 65 walks while striking out 179 and surrendering 15 home runs. The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon, who is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 64.0 innings. He has allowed 41 hits and 34 walks while recording 70 strikeouts and allowing six home runs. The numbers make this an extremely close starting pitching matchup, with the Mets holding slight advantages in ERA and WHIP while also getting substantially more innings from their scheduled starter this season.

Mets Bring a Four-Game Winning Streak Across Town

The Mets enter Friday at 68-78 overall and 34-38 on the road, but their recent form has been considerably better than the season record suggests. They have won four consecutive games and four of their last five, including three straight road victories by scores of 15-14, 7-5 and 9-4. The Mets also earned a 4-2 home victory before the current road trip, with their only loss over the last five coming by a 9-5 score. They have already taken two of three games from the Yankees this season.

The Mets are batting .238 with 627 runs, 1,171 hits and 181 home runs. They carry a .309 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .241 batting average. The staff has issued 508 walks and recorded 1,304 strikeouts.

Recent offensive production is the most encouraging part of the Mets' profile entering this matchup. They have scored 35 runs during their four-game winning streak, including 31 across their last three games alone. The challenge is carrying that production into a matchup against a Yankees pitching staff that has been considerably better over the full season. The Mets have shown they can compete in this matchup after winning two of the first three meetings, but Friday represents a more difficult test against a team playing well at home.

Yankees Lean on Their Run Prevention

The Yankees enter the Subway Series at 83-62 overall and 39-31 at Yankee Stadium. They have won two straight and three of their last five, beating Colorado 5-3 and 6-1 in their two most recent games. Before that, New York dropped a 4-3 decision on the road, earned a 5-1 victory and lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Four of the Yankees' last five games have been decided by three runs or fewer.

New York is batting .234 with 657 runs, 1,119 hits and 197 home runs. The Yankees own a .312 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage. Their biggest statistical advantage is on the mound, where they carry a 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .223 batting average. The pitching staff has issued 434 walks and recorded 1,301 strikeouts.

The Yankees' season-long strength has been their ability to prevent runs, and that becomes particularly important against a Mets offense coming off an explosive stretch. New York has allowed just 11 runs over its last five games and only four across its current two-game winning streak. The Yankees also hold advantages over the Mets in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. The biggest question is whether those advantages are enough to overcome a Mets club that has already won two of the first three meetings.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

This is a tighter matchup than the overall records might indicate because the Mets arrive with four consecutive victories and have already won the season series' first three-game set 2-1. Still, the Yankees have the more complete statistical profile. Their 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are substantially better than the Mets' 4.19 and 1.31 marks, while the Yankees have also allowed opponents to bat only .223. The scheduled starting pitching matchup is nearly even statistically, which shifts more weight toward the overall team numbers and home-field advantage. With the Yankees 39-31 at home and holding the stronger season-long run-prevention numbers, take the New York Yankees moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher. The Mets' recent offensive explosion creates some concern, particularly after scoring 31 runs over their last three games, but Friday's pitching matchup is considerably stronger than those recent scores suggest. Both scheduled starters carry ERAs just above 3.00 and WHIPs below 1.20, while the Yankees own a 3.21 team ERA and have surrendered only 11 runs over their last five games. New York's last five games have produced combined totals of seven, eight, seven, six and five runs. If the market gives us 8.5, the Under offers the better betting angle.

Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.