New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The New York Mets visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Saturday, September 12, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV and MLB Network. The Mets enter at 68-78 overall and 34-38 on the road, while the Yankees are 84-62 overall and 40-31 at home. The Mets lead the season series 2-1, but the Yankees come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak while the Mets have won four straight. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

The Mets are scheduled to start Zac Thornton, who enters at 3-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 66.1 innings. He has allowed 64 hits and 11 home runs while recording 51 strikeouts against 15 walks. The Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole, who is 8-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 111 innings. He has surrendered 99 hits and 17 home runs while striking out 113 and walking 22. The Yankees own the slight statistical edge in the starting matchup, with the lower ERA and WHIP along with a much stronger strikeout total.

Mets Bring a Four-Game Winning Streak Across Town

The Mets enter Saturday at 68-78 overall and 34-38 on the road. They have won four straight games and four of their last five, most recently taking three consecutive road games by scores of 9-4, 7-5 and 15-14. The Mets also earned a 4-2 victory immediately before that stretch, with their only loss in the last five coming by a 9-5 score. The recent surge has come with considerably more offensive production than their season-long record would suggest.

The Mets are batting .238 with 627 runs, 1,171 hits and 181 home runs. They own a .309 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while opponents are batting .241. The Mets have recorded 1,304 strikeouts against 508 walks and are 30-29 in day games.

The Mets' biggest recent strength has been their ability to generate runs, but the season-long numbers still show a clear pitching disadvantage compared with the Yankees. They have allowed a higher opponent batting average and carry an ERA nearly a full run worse. The offense does have enough power to keep this game competitive, and the Mets have already won two of the first three meetings this season, but maintaining their current scoring pace against the Yankees' stronger pitching profile will be the challenge.

Yankees Look to Extend Their Three-Game Winning Streak

The Yankees enter Saturday at 84-62 overall and 40-31 at Yankee Stadium. They have won three straight games and four of their last five, with their latest victories coming by scores of 5-3, 6-1 and 10-3. Their only loss during that stretch was a 4-3 defeat, while the other victory came 5-1. The Yankees are currently three games out of first place in the AL East and continue to play some of their best recent baseball.

The Yankees are batting .234 with 667 runs, 1,130 hits and 199 home runs. They have a .312 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been a major strength, producing a 3.20 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while holding opponents to a .223 batting average. Yankees pitchers have recorded 1,313 strikeouts against 439 walks.

The Yankees hold the stronger overall profile in this matchup. They have scored 40 more runs than the Mets, hit 18 more home runs and own the better slugging percentage. The difference on the mound is even more pronounced, with New York holding nearly a full-run advantage in team ERA along with a significantly lower WHIP and opponent batting average. Add in a 40-31 home record and a three-game winning streak, and the Yankees enter with multiple statistical edges.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

The New York Yankees Moneyline is the preferred side. The Mets are playing well and have won four straight, but the Yankees own the stronger season-long profile and have also won three consecutive games. Their pitching staff is substantially better statistically, with a 3.20 ERA compared with 4.19 for the Mets and a 1.16 WHIP compared with 1.31. The Yankees also have the slight advantage between the scheduled starters and are 40-31 at home, making them the stronger side in Saturday's matchup.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher. The Yankees' pitching numbers create the strongest case for a lower-scoring game, particularly with a 3.20 team ERA and .223 opponent batting average. Both scheduled starters also enter with ERAs in the mid-3.00s and WHIPs below 1.20. The Mets have been scoring at a high rate recently, but the Yankees present a much tougher run-prevention matchup than the teams they have just faced. At 8.5 or better, the Under is the preferred total.

Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed on Friday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.