New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 18, 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Mets visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, July 18, 2026, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. MLB.TV will provide coverage. New York enters at 41-57 overall and 20-29 on the road, while Philadelphia is 54-44 overall and 25-22 at home. The matchup predictor gives the Mets a 37.0% chance to win and the Phillies a 63.0% probability. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Sean Manaea is scheduled to start for New York against Philadelphia left-hander Jesus Luzardo. Manaea enters with a 2-4 record, 4.56 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP through 75 innings. He has allowed 75 hits and 10 home runs while recording 74 strikeouts against 24 walks. Luzardo is 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 110.1 innings. He has surrendered 100 hits and nine home runs while producing 136 strikeouts and issuing 35 walks. The Philadelphia starter holds the better record, ERA, WHIP, and strikeout total in the supplied matchup statistics.
New York Tries to Build on Its Latest Road Victory
New York enters Saturday’s matchup at 41-57 overall with a 20-29 record away from home. The Mets have won two of their last five games, including a recent 4-1 road victory over Philadelphia. They also recently won 7-3 over Kansas City. New York lost its other three games during the supplied stretch, falling 3-2 in 10 innings, 4-0, and 6-2 to Boston.
The Mets are batting .233 with 768 hits, 402 runs, and 115 home runs. Their offense carries a .303 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .237 batting average. The staff has issued 352 walks and recorded 894 strikeouts. The Mets have a 19-22 record in day games.
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New York’s most notable strength is its ability to limit opposing batting averages. The Mets’ .237 opponent batting average is 18 points lower than Philadelphia’s .255 mark. Their 1.30 WHIP is also slightly better than the Phillies’ 1.32 figure. The weakness is an offense that has scored two runs or fewer in three of its last four games. New York also trails Philadelphia in runs, hits, home runs, batting average, and slugging percentage.
Philadelphia Looks for a Quick Home Reversal
Philadelphia enters the contest with a 54-44 overall record and a 25-22 mark at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have won three of their last five games despite recently losing 4-1 to New York. Philadelphia recently earned 5-0 and 4-2 victories over Detroit while also winning 1-0 over Cincinnati. Its other defeat during the listed stretch was a 10-2 result against Detroit.
The Phillies are batting .235 with 774 hits, 425 runs, and 125 home runs. Philadelphia has posted a .302 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff carries a 4.23 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .255. The Phillies have issued 286 walks and collected 957 strikeouts. Philadelphia enters with a 16-18 record in day games.
Philadelphia’s strongest statistical edge is its combination of power and strikeouts. The Phillies have hit 10 more home runs than the Mets and have scored 23 more runs. Their pitching staff has also recorded 63 more strikeouts while issuing 66 fewer walks. Philadelphia’s opponent batting average is a concern compared with New York’s number, but its overall record, home performance, and scheduled starting-pitcher statistics provide meaningful advantages.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick
- Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Philadelphia is my preferred side based on its stronger record, superior starting-pitcher statistics, and 63.0% matchup-predictor probability. The Phillies are 13 games ahead of the Mets in the overall standings and have a winning record at home, while New York is nine games below .500 on the road. Philadelphia also holds offensive advantages in runs, hits, home runs, batting average, and slugging percentage. New York won the most recent supplied meeting 4-1, but the broader statistical comparison supports a Philadelphia response.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I prefer the under because four of New York’s last five games finished with seven or fewer combined runs. Four of Philadelphia’s last five also stayed at seven or fewer, with the 12-run loss to Detroit serving as the only exception. The Phillies have recorded two shutouts during that stretch, while the Mets have scored no more than two runs in three of their last four games. The scheduled Philadelphia starter also enters with a 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, supporting a lower-scoring prediction.
Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 5 – New York Mets 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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