New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions, Monday September 8, 2025
The NL East is one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, and with so much on the line in the final month, every game means a lot, especially in our New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
The New York Mets (76-67) have been up-and-down as of late, but with one of the most star-studded rosters in baseball, if they can find their momentum down the stretch, this is a team capable of going all the way in 2025.
On Monday they start a series with the Philadelphia Phillies (83-60), a team that's gotten better and better as the 2025 season has gone on, and with a healthy lead in the East, they're ready for a deep post-season run. Read on to see our New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: RHP Nolan McLean vs. RHP Aaron Nola.
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Can the Mets turn the tide in the NL East division race?
The New York Mets have shown they're capable of hot runs this season, but as of late they've struggled, going 12-12 over their last 24 games as they've fallen to seven games back of the Phillies in the National League East race. After a red-hot start to the season on the mound, the Mets now rank 15th in baseball in team ERA with a 3.93 mark, but given that they come in ninth in runs scored, they're a team that is confident they can make a run no matter how they find their way into the post-season.
In this one, New York turn to 24-year-old rookie Nolan McLean, making just his fifth career start after posting a fantastic 1.37 ERA in the first four, tossing 26.1 innings while allowing just 13 hits and striking out 28 hitters in that time. Last time out for the Mets was a tight loss to the Cincinnati Reds, with the lineup managing just three hits on the night as Brandon Sproat gave them 6.0 innings of three-run ball, enough for Cincinnati to pick up the 3-2 win.
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Can the Phillies take one step closer to an NL East crown?
The Philadelphia Phillies have been dominant for much of the 2025 campaign, and with a 45-23 record at home this season, this series presents them a major opportunity to go one step closer to clinching top spot in the National League East. While the Phillies come in 10th in runs scored around baseball this season, they've been one of the more balanced teams in the league, as they've put together a team ERA of 3.82, giving them the chance to win games every night out in multiple different ways.
Taking the mound for Philadelphia here will be veteran right-hander Aaron Nola, who has struggled mightily across 13 starts this season, posting a 6.55 ERA in six starts at home in that time, with the 32-year-old veteran allowing 41 hits across just 33.0 innings of work. Last time out for the Phillies was a tough road loss to the Miami Marlins, with three hits to Brandon Marsh not enough to get the job done as Taijuan Walker gave up four runs over 6.0 innings, with the team falling 5-4 in a tight matchup.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- New York -118 (4 units)
While it's the Phillies leading the NL East race right now, the Mets have been dominant in this head-to-head rivalry, posting an 8-2 record in their last 10 head-to-head matchups, with an impressive three-game sweep in their August matchup.
In that series, the Mets outscored their NL East rivals 25-8, and with Nolan McLean tossing 8.0 scoreless innings in the series finale of that matchup, expect the impressive young rookie to do it again as New York comes into Philadelphia and starts this series with a win.
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Over/Under Pick for New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Over 8 (4 units)
This matchup is a contrasting one on the mound with a star rookie rolling up against a struggling veteran, with the over being 5-5 in the last 10 head-to-head encounters between these teams, with an average of 10 total runs scored in their nine meetings in 2025.
For the Mets, the over sits at 5-4-1 in their last 10 overall games, with 6.5 runs allowed per game during that stretch, and for the Phillies, the over comes in at 5-5 in their past 10, with 57 total runs scored in that impressive span.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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