New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions, Thursday September 11, 2025
The race for the postseason is heating up all across baseball, and with every game having an impact on division and Wild Card races, fans will need to keep a close eye out for our New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
The New York Mets (76-70) have been stumbling as of late, but with an incredibly talented roster that started this year red-hot, they've still put themselves in a great position to be a postseason contender in 2025.
On Thursday, they battle the Philadelphia Phillies (86-60), a team that found their momentum mid-way through the season and hasn't looked back, as they find themselves rolling into what could be a very special October. Read on to see our New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo.
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Can the Mets hold on to their Wild Card spot?
The New York Mets were one of the hottest teams in baseball early in the 2025 campaign, but with losses in five straight and six of their last seven, they're only just holding onto a Wild Card spot, sitting two games up on the red-hot San Francisco Giants. Despite their recent struggles, the Mets rank 10th in baseball in runs scored this season, and with a winnable team ERA of 3.95, if they can somehow turn around their momentum, this isn't a team that anyone can take lightly down the stretch.
Taking the mound for New York here will be veteran left-hander David Peterson, who has put together a very solid 3.72 ERA through 27 appearances this season, but with an ERA of 3.66 on the road thus far, he's showing that he's a good performer every night out. Last time out for the Mets was their third straight loss in this series to the Phillies, with Clay Holmes giving up four earned runs across 4.0 innings as three hits from Juan Soto simply weren't enough, with the team falling 11-3.
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Can the Phillies keep cruising to an NL East division crown?
The Philadelphia Phillies came into 2025 with World Series expectations, and with a 48-23 record at home this season, they've built themselves a fantastic 10-game lead atop the National League East with just a few weeks of the season to play. On paper, the Phillies may be the most balanced team in baseball, as their team ERA of 3.79 ranks them seventh in all of baseball, and as they rank ninth in runs scored, this is a team that can beat any other in the National League in a multitude of ways with the playoffs approaching.
Philadelphia will turn to a left of their own in Jesus Luzardo in this one, with the 27-year-old posting a 4.01 ERA over 29 appearances this year, with 190 strikeouts in 161.2 innings of work, putting him on pace to surpass his career high. Last time out for the Phillies was another dominant win over these Mets, with five RBI to Max Kepler leading an offensive explosion as Cristopher Sanchez gave them 6.0 innings of one-run ball as they cruised to an 11-3 victory.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies pick
Spread Pick for Mets vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia -140 (5 units)
While the record between these two teams in their last 10 head-to-head matchups sits at 5-5, it's the Phillies that have dominated this series, going 3-0 thus far while outscoring the Mets 21-6 in that time.
On top of that, in their last six played in Philadelphia, the Phillies have come away winners in five of those games, and with all the momentum behind them against a struggling Mets, expect the Phillies to clinch the NL East as they finish off the sweep in this one.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
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| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under pick for New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Over 8.5 (4 units)
In the last two matchups between these teams in this series, a total of 26 runs have been scored, and with the over being 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, expect the Phillies bats to stay red-hot in this matchup.
For the Mets, the over sits at 5-5 in their last 10 overall games, with just under six runs allowed per game during that time, and for the Phillies, the over comes in at 4-4-2 in their past 10, with an impressive 5.5 runs scored per game in that stretch.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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