New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Friday August 7 2026

The New York Mets open a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Friday, August 7. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage available through MLB.TV. New York enters this matchup at 49-66 overall and 24-32 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 57-59 overall and 29-28 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking for additional Friday baseball predictions can visit our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Zac Thornton is the probable starter for New York, while Pittsburgh had not announced its starter at the time of this preview. Thornton is 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP through 34.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 26 hits and three home runs while recording 24 strikeouts against 10 walks. Thornton’s limited workload should be considered, but his ability to restrict baserunners gives the Mets a chance to remain competitive during the early innings. Pittsburgh’s undecided starter creates additional uncertainty and is one reason bettors should confirm the final pitching matchup before placing a wager.

Mets Look to Build on Consecutive Wins

The Mets have won two of their last five games, leaving them 49-66 overall and 24-32 away from home. New York recently won 6-5 in 10 innings over Cleveland after earning a 6-2 victory in the previous game. Those results followed three consecutive losses against Miami by scores of 2-0, 6-2 and 5-2. The Mets scored 16 runs while allowing 20 across those five contests, although 12 of their runs came during the two victories over Cleveland. 

New York owns a .232 team batting average with 469 runs, 897 hits and 137 home runs this season. The Mets have produced a .303 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage, numbers that place considerable pressure on their pitching staff. New York’s pitchers have compiled a 4.07 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average while issuing 404 walks and recording 1,038 strikeouts.

The clearest concern for New York is whether its recent offensive improvement can be sustained. The Mets scored two runs or fewer in each of their three games against Miami before breaking through against Cleveland. Thornton’s 2.88 ERA provides a promising foundation, but New York cannot expect its starter to carry the entire game. The lineup must generate traffic and score before Pittsburgh can turn the contest over to its preferred late-inning relievers.

Pirates Return Home Needing an Offensive Response

Pittsburgh has gone 2-3 over its last five games and enters Friday at 57-59 overall. The Pirates are 29-28 at PNC Park, giving them a winning home record despite sitting one game below .500 for the season. Pittsburgh dropped its last two games against Milwaukee by identical 4-2 scores after winning the series opener 4-3. The Pirates also split their final two games against Cincinnati, losing 10-2 after earning a 4-1 victory.

The Pirates have recorded a .256 batting average with 586 runs, 1,030 hits and 142 home runs. They also carry a .333 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh has been considerably more productive than New York over the complete season, averaging approximately 5.1 runs per game compared with roughly 4.1 for the Mets. The pitching staff owns a 4.30 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, with 1,077 strikeouts and 424 walks.

Pittsburgh’s season-long offensive numbers provide its biggest advantage, but its recent run production has slipped. The Pirates scored only 14 runs over their last five games and were held to two runs in three of those contests. Facing a starter with a 1.05 WHIP could make an immediate turnaround difficult. However, Pittsburgh should have opportunities once Thornton leaves the game, especially if its lineup can force him to work through lengthy at-bats.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction

• Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

I am taking Pittsburgh on the moneyline if the price remains reasonable. The Pirates own the better overall record, the winning home record and the much stronger season-long offensive profile. Pittsburgh holds meaningful advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total runs.

Thornton’s numbers make New York dangerous, particularly through the first five innings, but Pittsburgh’s ability to create consistent scoring chances gives it the better path over a full nine-inning game. New York has lost three of its last five and remains 17 games below .500. I would keep the wager modest until Pittsburgh officially confirms its starter, but the Pirates are still my preferred side.

• Pick: Under 8.5

I lean under if the total is set at 8.5. Thornton has allowed relatively little damage through 34.1 innings, while Pittsburgh has scored two runs in three of its last five games. New York’s offense has shown improvement in its last two outings, but its .232 batting average and .303 on-base percentage indicate that extended scoring surges have been difficult to maintain.

The unknown Pittsburgh starter adds risk to this selection, so I would not play the under below eight runs. At 8.5, however, the number provides enough protection in a matchup featuring two offenses that have recently struggled to generate consistent production.

This preview was written prior to game play on Thursday.