New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 9 2026
The New York Mets will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, August 9, 2026, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV providing coverage. New York enters the weekend at 51-66 overall and 26-32 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 57-61 overall and 29-29 at home. The Mets won Friday's series opener 6-4, while Saturday's game was not completed when this preview was written. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Baseball bettors should check the latest lines closer to game time and check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.
Starting Pitchers
New York will start Sean Manaea against Pittsburgh's Jared Jones. Manaea enters at 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 97.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 100 hits and 13 home runs while striking out 95 and walking 35. Jones is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 56.0 innings. The Pirates right-hander has surrendered 46 hits and nine home runs while recording 62 strikeouts against 16 walks.
New York Arrives With Some Much-Needed Momentum
The Mets enter Sunday's matchup at 51-66 overall and 26-32 away from home, but their recent play has been considerably better than their season record. New York has won four consecutive games and four of its last five completed contests. The Mets defeated Pittsburgh 6-4 Friday after sweeping three games in Cleveland by scores of 13-6, 6-5 in 10 innings and 6-2. Their only loss during the five-game stretch was a 2-0 defeat against Miami.
New York is batting .235 this season with 488 runs, 925 hits and 141 home runs. The Mets own a .305 on-base percentage and .387 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York carries a 4.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, with opponents batting .239. Mets pitchers have recorded 1,054 strikeouts while issuing 412 walks.
Recent offensive improvement is the encouraging part of New York's profile. The Mets have scored at least six runs in each game during their four-game winning streak, producing 31 total runs over that span. Their season statistics remain below Pittsburgh's in several important offensive categories, but New York enters the weekend playing much better baseball than its 51-66 record suggests.
Pittsburgh Searches for an Offensive Response
Pittsburgh enters Sunday's series finale at 57-61 overall and an even 29-29 at PNC Park. The Pirates have lost four consecutive games and four of their last five completed contests. Friday's 6-4 defeat against New York followed three consecutive losses in Milwaukee by scores of 5-2, 4-2 and 4-2. Pittsburgh's only victory during the five-game stretch was a 4-3 win against Milwaukee.
The Pirates have produced the stronger season-long offensive numbers. Pittsburgh is batting .257 with 592 runs, 1,048 hits and 143 home runs. The Pirates have a .334 on-base percentage and .412 slugging percentage, giving them clear advantages over New York in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and runs scored. Pittsburgh's pitching staff owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while opponents are batting .241.
The concern is that Pittsburgh's recent production hasn't matched those season numbers. The Pirates have scored only 14 runs during their last five completed games and have failed to score more than four in any of them. Jones gives Pittsburgh an opportunity to slow down New York, especially considering his 1.11 WHIP, but the Pirates need their offense to begin converting its season-long statistical advantage into runs.
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the pick to win Sunday's game.
New York unquestionably has the better recent form. The Mets have won four straight while Pittsburgh has dropped four consecutive games. However, the season statistics and starting pitching matchup give the Pirates enough advantages to make Pittsburgh the side.
Jones' 1.11 WHIP is particularly important against a Mets offense that owns only a .305 on-base percentage for the season. Pittsburgh also has significant offensive advantages, batting .257 compared with New York at .235 while producing a .334 OBP against the Mets' .305. The Pirates have scored 104 more runs this season despite playing only one additional game.
Take the Pittsburgh Pirates to win.
- Pick: Over 8.5
The over is the preferred total if the number is set at 8.5.
Manaea enters with a 4.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, while Pittsburgh has been the significantly stronger offense over the full season. The Pirates' .257 batting average and .334 OBP should create opportunities against a pitcher who has allowed 100 hits in 97.2 innings.
New York's recent offense also makes the over attractive. The Mets have scored six or more runs in four straight games, including Friday's six-run performance against Pittsburgh. Jones has better baserunner numbers than Manaea, but his 4.02 ERA leaves New York with a reasonable path toward contributing enough runs.
With Pittsburgh possessing the stronger season offense and New York entering in its best recent offensive stretch, 8.5 provides a playable number for the over.
Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 6, New York Mets 4
This preview was written prior to game play on Saturday.