New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Monday August 31 2026

The New York Mets travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday evening at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on August 31, with MLB.TV providing the coverage. New York enters the series opener at 61-75 overall and 29-37 on the road, while Tampa Bay is 81-54 overall and an impressive 45-23 at home. The Rays sit atop the American League East and bring a three-game winning streak into this matchup, while the Mets are 20 games back in the National League East. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Tampa Bay a 70.7% chance to win compared with 29.3% for New York. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers on Monday's game, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Robert Stock, who enters at 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through 20.2 innings. Stock has allowed 27 hits while recording 21 strikeouts against 13 walks and has surrendered two home runs. Tampa Bay counters with Ian Seymour, who is 9-5 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 107 innings. Seymour has allowed 91 hits while striking out 128 against only 32 walks and has surrendered 19 home runs. The Rays hold the clear statistical advantage in the starting matchup, particularly in ERA, WHIP, strikeout production and overall workload.

Mets Open Another Difficult Road Series

New York enters Monday at 61-75 and remains at the bottom of the National League East. The Mets have gone 29-37 away from home and are just 2-3 over their last five completed games. Their latest listed result was a 6-2 victory, but that came after three consecutive losses in which New York scored only four combined runs.

The Mets are batting .236 as a team with 559 runs, 1,079 hits and 163 home runs. They carry a .306 on-base percentage and .388 slugging percentage. Those numbers put New York behind Tampa Bay in batting average, total runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Pitching has been slightly stronger than the offense but still inconsistent. New York owns a 4.08 team ERA and 1.30 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .237. The staff has issued 488 walks while recording 1,219 strikeouts. Those are respectable strikeout numbers, but Monday's starting assignment creates a significant concern given the gap between the scheduled starters.

The Mets have also struggled to consistently generate offense recently. They scored one, two and one run in three consecutive games before breaking through for six in their most recent completed contest. That inconsistency becomes especially important against a Tampa Bay club that has been one of the better run-prevention teams in the league.

Rays Continue to Control the AL East

Tampa Bay enters Monday at 81-54 and leads the American League East. The Rays have been outstanding at Tropicana Field, posting a 45-23 home record, and they come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak. Tampa Bay has won four of its last five completed games, including victories of 7-6, 9-4, 3-0 and 4-1.

The Rays have been efficient offensively throughout the season. Tampa Bay is batting .261 with 611 runs, 1,181 hits and 140 home runs. The club owns a .329 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. The Rays have hit fewer home runs than the Mets, but they have generated 52 more runs and have a substantial advantage in batting average and on-base percentage.

Tampa Bay's pitching profile is also superior. The Rays own a 3.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 batting average. The staff has issued only 337 walks while recording 1,099 strikeouts. That control advantage stands out compared with New York's 488 walks.

Recent form strengthens the case for Tampa Bay. The Rays have scored at least seven runs in each of their last two victories and have allowed four runs or fewer in three of their last five games. Their combination of home-field success, better offense and stronger pitching makes this a difficult matchup for a New York team that has struggled away from home.

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Tampa Bay is the stronger side based on both season-long numbers and Monday's pitching matchup. The Rays are 45-23 at home, have won three straight and enter with clear advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, ERA and WHIP. New York's scheduled starter has a 7.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP, while Tampa Bay's starter brings a 4.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and far more innings of work. The Rays also own an 81-54 overall record compared with New York at 61-75. With no market available yet, take Tampa Bay on the moneyline once the line is posted.

Pick: Under 8.5

The total has not been released, but 8.5 is the preferred target number. Tampa Bay owns a 3.79 team ERA and has allowed four runs or fewer in three of its last five games, while New York has been held to two runs or fewer in three of its last four listed contests. The risk comes from New York's starting pitching, which could allow Tampa Bay to do significant damage, but the Mets' inconsistent offense gives the Under enough support at this number. Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher.

Final Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.