New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 73-85 overall and 37-40 on the road, while Washington is 75-84 overall and 37-41 at home. The Nationals sit fourth in the NL East, 1.5 games ahead of the fifth-place Mets, but New York holds a 6-4 advantage in the season series. Both clubs enter on two-game winning streaks. The Mets took consecutive road games from Texas by scores of 6-3 and 7-2, while Washington responded to a 9-2 loss at Detroit by winning the next two games 3-1 and 4-2. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

New York had not announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was completed, creating considerable uncertainty on the Mets' side of the matchup. Washington is scheduled to start Andrew Alvarez, who enters at 2-6 despite an impressive 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 108 innings. Alvarez has allowed only 88 hits and five home runs while recording 107 strikeouts against 48 walks. His win-loss record does not accurately reflect how effectively he has limited opposing offenses. Allowing just 88 hits over 108 innings stands out, as does his ability to keep the ball in the park. Washington therefore enters with the only established starting-pitching profile in this matchup, while New York's eventual starter will be an important factor to monitor before placing a wager.

New York Has Found Some Late-Season Momentum

The Mets enter this series at 73-85 overall and 37-40 away from home. New York has won four of its last five games, taking two of three from Philadelphia before sweeping a two-game road set against Texas. The Mets scored six or more runs in all four victories, beating Philadelphia 6-3 and 10-3 before defeating Texas 6-3 and 7-2. Their only loss during the five-game stretch was a 7-2 defeat against Philadelphia. Overall, New York has outscored its opponents 31-18 during those five contests.

New York is batting .239 with 681 runs, 1,276 hits and 197 home runs. The Mets have a .310 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.14 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .239. New York pitchers have issued 540 walks and recorded 1,419 strikeouts. The Mets trail Washington in virtually every major offensive category supplied for this matchup, including batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, but they have been substantially better on the mound.

That pitching difference gives New York an interesting path to winning despite its inferior season record. The Mets have a 4.14 ERA compared with Washington's 4.65 and a 1.29 WHIP compared with the Nationals' 1.39. Opponents are also batting only .239 against New York compared with .253 against Washington. The immediate concern is the uncertainty surrounding Friday's starter. New York's bullpen and overall staff numbers provide reason for confidence, but the handicap changes considerably depending on who handles the opening innings.

Washington Brings the Stronger Offense Into the Series

Washington enters Friday at 75-84 overall and 37-41 at Nationals Park. The Nationals have won three of their last five games and are coming off consecutive victories over Detroit. After losing 5-3 to St. Louis and 9-2 to Detroit, Washington allowed only three combined runs over its next two games. The Nationals defeated Detroit 3-1 on Tuesday and 4-2 on Wednesday. Washington has scored 20 runs and surrendered 22 over its last five, although 14 of those runs allowed came in the two losses.

The Nationals have produced the stronger offensive season, batting .246 with 807 runs, 1,333 hits and 207 home runs. Washington owns a .321 on-base percentage and .423 slugging percentage. Those numbers give the Nationals a seven-point advantage in batting average, an enormous 126-run advantage, 57 more hits and 10 additional home runs compared with New York. Washington's weakness has been run prevention. The Nationals carry a 4.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, have issued 593 walks and allowed opponents to bat .253. They have recorded 1,254 strikeouts, considerably fewer than New York's 1,419.

Washington's offense is the strongest statistical unit in this matchup, and Alvarez gives the Nationals an opportunity to combine that production with quality starting pitching Friday. His 3.17 ERA is substantially better than Washington's 4.65 team mark, while only five home runs allowed in 108 innings could be particularly important against a Mets offense that has generated 197 homers. Washington's biggest challenge will come once Alvarez exits. The season-long pitching numbers strongly favor New York, making it important for the Nationals to establish an advantage during the early innings.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline

Washington is the preferred side as long as the eventual price remains reasonable. The Nationals have been the considerably better offensive club, scoring 807 runs compared with only 681 for New York while also holding advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs. More importantly for this particular matchup, Washington has a known starter with a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while New York's starter remains undecided. The Mets have played excellent baseball over their last five games and own the superior overall pitching staff, so this is hardly a one-sided matchup. However, the combination of Washington's offensive advantage and Alvarez's strong run-prevention numbers gives the Nationals the edge entering Friday.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

The over becomes attractive at 8.0 or lower because these teams have shown considerably more offensive ability than their records might suggest. Washington has scored 807 runs with a .423 slugging percentage and 207 home runs, while New York has suddenly scored 31 runs across its last five games. The Mets have reached at least six runs in four of those contests. Washington's 4.65 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP also provide New York with an opportunity to continue its offensive surge once Alvarez leaves the game. Alvarez's performance creates some under pressure early, but the unknown New York starter combined with Washington's season-long offensive production makes eight runs a reasonable threshold for backing the over.

Final Picks: Washington Nationals Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.