New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM ET with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. New York enters the weekend at 73-86 overall and 37-41 on the road, while Washington is 75-84 overall and 37-41 at home. The Nationals sit fourth in the NL East, two games ahead of the fifth-place Mets. New York leads the completed season series 6-4, including three consecutive one-run victories in the most recent meetings. Washington enters the weekend having won two straight, while New York is coming off a 3-1 loss to Texas. Friday's series opener had not been completed at the time this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Jonah Tong, who enters at 2-2 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 25.2 innings. He has allowed 21 hits and two home runs while recording 25 strikeouts against 13 walks. Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who is 2-9 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 101.2 innings. He has allowed 93 hits and 18 home runs while striking out 104 and walking 46. Neither starter brings an overwhelming statistical profile into Saturday, but New York has the better numbers in ERA, WHIP and home-run prevention. The limited workload for the Mets starter adds uncertainty, although allowing only two homers through 25.2 innings is encouraging. Washington's starter has a much larger sample, but his 5.40 ERA and 18 home runs allowed create opportunities for a Mets offense that has demonstrated considerable power this season.

Mets Look to Turn Power Into Consistent Production

New York enters Saturday at 73-86 overall and has split its last five completed games at 3-2. The Mets took two of three completed games in Texas, winning 6-3 and 7-2 before dropping the finale 3-1. Before that series, they split their final two games against Philadelphia, losing 7-2 before responding with a 10-3 victory. New York has scored 26 runs and allowed 18 across those five games.

The Mets are batting .238 with 682 runs, 1,280 hits and 197 home runs. They own a .309 on-base percentage and .393 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.14 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while issuing 543 walks and recording 1,427 strikeouts. New York has held opponents to a .239 batting average.

New York's biggest opportunity Saturday comes from the combination of its power and Washington's run-prevention problems. The Mets have nearly 200 home runs this season, while the Nationals carry a 4.65 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Washington's scheduled starter has also surrendered 18 home runs in 101.2 innings. The Mets have been inconsistent offensively, but this matchup provides them with a chance to generate considerably more production than they managed in their most recent game.

Nationals Bring the Better Offensive Numbers

Washington enters Saturday at 75-84 overall and has won three of its last five completed games. The Nationals took the final two games of their Detroit series by scores of 3-1 and 4-2 after losing the opener 9-2. They previously split their final two games at St. Louis, losing 5-3 before earning an 8-5 victory in 11 innings. Washington has scored 20 runs across those five games while allowing 22.

The Nationals have been the substantially more productive offense over the full season. Washington is batting .246 with 807 runs, 1,333 hits and 207 home runs while posting a .321 on-base percentage and .423 slugging percentage. However, its pitching has not been nearly as reliable. The Nationals own a 4.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 593 walks and 1,254 strikeouts while allowing opponents to bat .253.

Washington's path to victory is through its offense. The Nationals have scored 125 more runs than New York and hold advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and home runs. The concern is whether their pitching can protect whatever offense they generate. Washington's starter carries a 5.40 ERA, and the staff as a whole has allowed significantly more baserunners than New York. That makes Saturday a matchup in which Washington may need several runs rather than expecting to win a low-scoring pitching battle.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

New York gets the slight preference in what should be one of the more competitive games on Saturday's schedule. Washington owns the stronger offensive profile, but the Mets have meaningful advantages on the mound. New York carries a 4.14 team ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .239 opponent batting average compared with Washington's 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .253 opponent average. The starting matchup also favors New York statistically, with its starter bringing a 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against Washington's 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Mets have also won six of the first ten completed meetings this season. Washington's offense makes this far from a comfortable side, but New York's combination of power and the better pitching profile provides enough of an edge to back the Mets.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

The over is the preferred total if the market posts 8.0 or lower. Washington has scored 807 runs with 207 home runs and a .423 slugging percentage, while New York has hit 197 homers of its own. The Nationals' pitching staff carries a 4.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, and their scheduled starter enters with a 5.40 ERA and 18 home runs allowed in 101.2 innings. New York's starter has better numbers but has worked only 25.2 innings, creating additional uncertainty once the game progresses. The earlier season series has also produced several high-scoring meetings, including totals of 16, 19, 15 and 12 runs. At 8.0 or better, there is enough offensive upside on both sides to support the over.

Final Picks: New York Mets Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Friday, September 25, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.